Last Place Wisdom: Preparing for the Future

I read a shitpost this past week on Twitter about how if you wanted to see increased success in your workplace, one needed to make Tuxedo Pepe their desktop background because of his powerful energy. Given my fantasy football luck up till now, I figured it couldn't hurt, so sorry Magnitude, the Keith-glorius Basterds will be relying on Pepe for now on.

So we've reached the point of the season where teams pretty much either know what they are, for good or for bad. A few questions do remain however: Are Dawson and myself good enough to sneak into the playoffs? Are Andrew and Steve for real, or are they winning based on their schedule? Are Stan, Clarke and Mike in a position to make a push and buy players in an attempt to make themselves favourites this year?

These questions will have real implications for how the rest of the season plays out, and who becomes buyers and sellers leading up to the trade deadline in 4 weeks. I won't tell you how to run your teams, but I will give my thoughts on how to approach any sort of rebuild or playoff run.

• If you are in the playoffs, you should realistically be looking to improve your team and winning a championship this year. Sure your team might only be average, so I'm not saying to sell the farm, however I think it makes more sense to play for this year rather than constantly looking to next year. Life is too short to always be looking at the future.
• If you have a shot at making the playoffs, you should try and do that. My team might not be very good, however until I am officially eliminated the playoffs are my goal. Sure, it might still make sense to downgrade from Evan Engram in return for a draft pick, but there will be no fire sales from me until things become more clear.
• If you are out of it and looking to sell, see if there are clear instances of players having down years who you could target. Odell Beckham fits the bill this year. I traded DeAndre Hopkins to Steve in his one bad year. Basically, you can set your team up for years if you take a chance on  a struggling star.
• If you can't get a struggling star in your rebuild, don't worry about it. The real time to improve your team is in the offseason, so try and give yourself the pieces you can use to do that. Those are either draft picks (they don't even have to be super high draft picks) or rookies. When next July hits, and teams are trying to determine their keepers, they will either be looking to move players for moderate value picks or to fill out their rookie spot. That is your point to really make your team better. Just this past offseason: Hilton, Lockett, Godwin, Golladay, Mike Williams, Kirk, Brees, Wentz, Josh Allen went for nothing more than mid-level pick swaps. Start looking at the teams who won't be able to keep all of their good players, and figure out who you would like to target in 6 months time.
• Note the players who were moved cheaply were all WRs or QBs; if you want to find a RB you can keep be prepared to pay either in trade or in their keeper value. Basically, don't be scared off by RBs just because they have a 1st or 2nd round keeper value; Andrew basically built his team around getting as many of these guys as he could. For this year, you might not feel great keeping guys like Mixon/Gordon/Henry/Michel/Sanders/guice at their current values, but they could easily become next year's Fournette or Cook if their situation or injury history improve.

This week's Power Powell Rankings are the top 12 players ranked on the likelihood of them being moved before the trade deadline.

• 12.  M. Brown - Maybe Mike feels like his team can compete with an upgrade at RB. In which case,Brown is a very intriguing keeper for teams looking at next year. I'm hesitant Mike wants to move him though.
• 11.  Hooper - This trade only makes sense between 2 playoff bound teams, but maybe Mike moves Hooper for help at RB, or maybe his loss to Clarke leaves Mike wanting to start 2 TEs
• 10.  K. Johnson - If I decide to make a run this year, Johnson could be moved to help me win now. Given who I need to pass to make the playoffs, this might not make sense however. 
• 9.    E. Sanders
• 8.    Mixon - In an alternate world where I don't think I can make the playoffs, both Mixon and Sanders could be moved to playoff bound teams. The most likely scenario is I'm never in a position to be either a buyer or seller.
• 7.    Guice - Steve is firmly in the playoffs, but his points scored lead to the fact that he is still looking for upgrades. Maybe someone wants to take the chance on this injury prone talent.
• 6.    Prescott
• 5.    M. Gordon
• 4.    Kelce - With Dawson's loss this week, he is looking like a clear seller at this point, after a season that started with so much optimism. Dawson has the most pieces left to sell because he hasn't started his tear-down yet, but I don't know who is he most likely to move of the 3 top candidates.
• 3.    Thielen - Depending on the severity of his re-injury this week, Brett might look to move Thielen for some help now. Being in danger of missing the playoffs while having league leading seasons from Mcaffery and Kupp might cause him to do something drastic.
• 2.    Howard - Aaron's teardown is almost complete; the only player left with more value this year than the future is Howard. He's not an exciting name, but he just keeps scoring points.
• 1.    Michel - Another situation where Travis has one clear player left that could help someone win this year, who I know is being shopped. He's not a bad value keeper for next season, meaning he could help someone both this year and next.

Honourable Mention: Kareem Hunt - Does Aaron trade Hunt to someone who believes Hunt could be a league winner this season? Does Aaron hold onto him on the hopes he's a starting RB for someone new next season? Interesting decisions for him to make. 

On the next Last Place Wisdom

• I figure out if I want to stick with the Express format or switch back to what I've done before, since with the length of this post the two formats are starting to blend together.