Last Place Wisdom: 2019 Week 4 - Trendsetting

I'm really not much of a trendsetter when it comes down to things; I'm hesitant to draw personal attention to myself, am wary about jumping into fads, and have a visceral reaction to what I consider to be the "pretentious douches" so often involved in what people consider to be fashionable. For those reason, it's kind of shocking to inadvertently end up as part of one of the most understated trends of 2019: non-ironic mustaches making a comeback. Yes, hipsters (aka pretentious douches) have been making mustaches a trend for years now, but I think recently things have changed to where it's become much more normal for regular 20/30 year old guys to grow a stache' and for people to not consider it a big deal. I say this trend is understated, because until you start looking for it, I don't think people realize how common it is currently. Let's take a short look at the world of sports alone in 2019:

(Yes, I know some of these mustaches are clearly crossing into the pretentious douche category; however the fact that it's famous athletes rather than baristas making the choice helps to show how widespread the item is)

Now maybe you've picked up on this trend more quickly than I have, but I think once you see it you can't help but notice it. Personally, I think this is pretty great: it's always been acceptable for 50-60 year old guys to have a mustache, the fact that the trend is coming back into fashion for a younger generation is a good thing. If you would've asked me even 5 years ago if I would ever grow a mustache, I don't think I would've said yes, whereas now I'm debating whether or not to grow back the full beard with winter just around the corner.

This hasn't had a lot to do with football up to this point, however it certainly feels like it's time to get another Last Place Wisdom out. Being 3 weeks into the season has given us enough time to start to understand what trends might actually be real, but there are still a few things that certainly feel like they're up in the air, and the rest of the season will depend on which way these things break.

First, a few of the fantasy trends that I actually think are for real:

• QB injuries - I don't know if there's actually anything leading to this, however given the absolute devastation that has happened to the position in the CFL (the only team not touched by QB injury is the BC Lions, who in a weird twist has spent most of the season as the clear worst team in the league (Ottawa has finally passed them for that honour)). There will be more QB injuries before this season is over, and it'll be the narrative for some time. A lack of adequate QB'ing is the major thing holding back football teams no matter what league you're in; it makes the CFL hard to watch sometimes, and is the main factor I don't believe an alternate football league will ever take off in the United States.
• Rookie WR success - I mentioned in my last column that rookie WRs are always drafted too high. This season, there are a number of rookies who probably weren't drafted high enough. I think Brown, McLaurin, Metcalf, Preston Williams, and maybe one or two others emerge as potential starters all season long, and we end up looking at one of the best rookie WR classes in some time.
• TEs make a comeback - For the past few years, the number of TEs you want to start has been shrinking. Right now, the top 10 guys have all been pretty good, including surprises by Waller, Andrews and Dissly and comebacks by Olsen and Walker. It's the best the position has looked in years, so of course this is the year I had to take a TE with an early pick instead of waiting (Not that I'm upset with having Engram, it's just that if this was any other year I'd have a guy like Andrews or Waller, and this is the only year those guys seem to be working out).
• Bad teams - Of the surprising "bad" teams, I think the Steelers, Bears and Panthers all continue to struggle all season long. (Chicago might end up with a good record based on their defense, but the offense will not be good this season)

On that last point, it's time for a way too early victory lap on my season long predictions

Correct

• John becomes the first team to trade for a QB - I predicted it because of struggles not injury, but it still counts as a win.
• Brett gets value out of Daniel Jones - It made sense Eli wouldn't last given how bad he's been.
• Shayne has a breakout player - It might be too early, but I think Jackson has proven he's one of the breakout players this year. 
• I don't freak out about my roster - Things haven't gone swimmingly for me up to this point, however I'm staying the course and remaining patient about the player I believe in who haven't lived up to expectations. 

Trending Correct

• Lions Offense and Ravens passing - Both seem to be better than analysts were predicting to start the year. 
• Bears and Steelers - Both teams seem to be far worse than expected, and I don't see things changing too much.
• Clarke struggles to make the playoffs - He's sitting in 8th right now, and it's clear at the moment he doesn't have the same dominant team as years past. 

Trending Incorrect

• I thought AB would last the whole year with the Raiders, only not live up to expectations, so I was wrong here. But I was correct in that we'd be looking at least until 2020 for any sort of value from him. 
• New York Jets better than Expected - It's hard to say I was completely wrong, because I couldn't predict that Darnold would get Mono. However they have not been good, so it was a blown call. On the plus side, Bell is showing that he's a good enough player that it might not matter for him that the offense isn't very good, which was the selfish reason for me to make that call in the first place. 

Here are some items that are looking like they might be trends, but I'm not fully convinced on. In any case, these are the ones to me that will have the most impact on how the second half of the season plays out.

• Powerhouse offenses that might be bad - Green Bay, Arizona, Cleveland, LA Rams and Minnesota's passing game all seem to fit the bill here. I think all of these teams turn it around and become much more functional on offense, however I am not fully convinced. This could play a big part in how successful myself, Brett, Clarke, Dawson and Travis end up being this year. 
• Good offenses staying great - New England, Baltimore, Dallas and the 49ers are all teams that one could say have been playing a little over their heads to start the year. I think all these teams are good, but I don't know if they are quite as good as their records and offensive stats to start the year might show. John, Shayne and Dawson are the teams having success early, relying on these trends to continue. 
• The relative parity in our league continues - Other than Shayne, who is 80 points higher than his closest rival, the rest of the league appears to be in a place of relative parity. The difference between John and 3-0 and my lowly 1-2 is only about 15 points per game. There's reason to think John and Shayne don't continue at perfect pace either; John is dealing with injury trouble, while Shayne has been relying on an incredible start by Ekeler and Allen, which might not last if Gordon comes back and Mike Williams can get healthy. In any case, I don't see anyone really running away with the league this year, as the person maybe primed best for it is Dawson but he's digging himself out of an early hole created by some bad matchup luck. 

On the next Last Place Wisdom:

• I drop all pretenses about a weekly blog and settle into a much more manageable tri-weekly release schedule
• The rest of you are inspired by my post to join Andrew and I in growing fine looking Dusters.
• I still refuse to panic about my disappointing roster, holding onto my struggling players in a last ditch attempt to feel good about calling my team The Pettis-philes this season.