Last Place Wisdom: 2019 Draft Day Bold Predictions

I've been listening to A LOT of fantasy football podcasts these past couple of months. While I appreciate the insight I think it might give me when it comes to the upcoming season, the reality of the situation is that no-one really has a great idea about how things are going to play out this year; it's part of the reason that fantasy football is so enjoyable to us. Knowing this, it should give analysts second thoughts when making projections, but I can definitively say that is rarely if ever the case. Now maybe this just doesn't make for a compelling podcast, but I think mainly most people are just not good at dealing with ambiguity and we enjoy giving ourselves a greater sense of certainty about topics than we should. Nothing demonstrates this more than the various Bold Predictions and Hot Takes articles and podcasts that pop up at this time of year; they're mostly useless when it comes to giving you information about what's going to happen, but we enjoy pontificating to ourselves. Sometimes they can even lead us down harmful paths, as shown to me last year where I bought into the narrative on players like Royce Freeman and Trey Burton that ended up harming my team in the big picture. Given how ridiculous I find the whole bold prediction industry this time of year, it's obvious that I have to do the same for my draft recap this year.



Draft Day Predictions

You'll have to take my word on this, but I'm writing down these predictions a week and a half before our draft day. I've been drafting with you all for long enough that I like to think I have a pretty good idea about how certain things on draft day will play out. The good part about these predictions is that by the time this article comes out we can actually see how accurate I am, so it should help give you a sense of how seriously to take the rest of my predictions this season.

• Andrew drafts DK Metcalf - Never has a player more been set up for Andrew to draft; he has his guys and he is not afraid to reach for them. The only way I can see this prediction failing is if Andrew has drastically changed his approach, and maybe he has considering he has gotten rid of 3 Seahawks and LSU Tigers this off season alone. (This was my easiest prediction to make by far.)
• Clarke uses his multiple early picks to follow an unconventional strategy - I think Clarke is very difficult to predict with great accuracy; in all of my personal mock drafts Clarke is the hardest to draft for. The reason for that is that Clarke is not afraid to follow unconventional strategy, and I think that continues. So for this year, it'll be something like this again: Clarke uses another top 2 round pick on Evan Engram, Clarke takes 2 QBs early, Clarke takes all of the top rookie RBs, or Clarke takes both Gordon and AJ Green. I don't know exactly how it will play out, but it'll be something like that. (Maybe you think getting Murray and Wilson so early was unconventional, but I don't, so I'm calling this a miss. Clarke seemed like he simply went with the guy he felt was best at each pick, and if you're a good judge of talent it's hard to go wrong there)
• Aaron doesn't pull an oven mitts - Aaron's discussion about the time commitment required by fantasy football has been the talk of the off-season. But the one thing he mentioned he still enjoys is preparing for the draft, and given that he drafted strongly last year, I think Aaron will come in prepared. No taking players already drafted, no taking injured or unsigned players, no drastic reaches. (Mostly correct. Aaron was mostly on point and prepared. I think his choice of 3 TEs was a bit of a drastic reach, but not horribly so)
• Rookie WRs continue to be over-drafted - Despite the fact they rarely live up to expectations, the TFLOEG will continue to be enamored by the possibility that rookies possess. We will continue to see multiple guys drafted way earlier than their production this season will warrant. (100% wrong. People got smart when it comes to the realistic upsides of rookie WRs. Maybe it was the 2 QBs pushing down the value of the position players and teams willing to take a shot on a rookie.)
• A QB Rush won't occur - I get the sense some people in the league are thinking there will be an incredible rush on QB at the top of the draft board, and the worry that this might happen might make it more likely that it will happen as the fear of missing out influences decision making. I think saner heads will prevail, and those people who need QB help but who don't have a ton of early picks (Shayne, John, Mike) will all be able to draft capable starting QBs when their turn comes. (Correct. Teams held off on QB, with only Mike taking 4 and only a few taking 3. It'll be interesting to watch the value of the guys left on the waiver wire as the season progresses)
• Someone, most likely Dawson-Clarke, makes a blockbuster trade before the season starts.(Credit to John) - The past couple of seasons, we have seen massive trades made involving multiple star players before the season has even begun, with players like Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, etc all changing teams. This very likely happens again; top candidates include Marlon Mack and some guys Clarke drafts in the top 2 rounds. (John spoiled this prediction at the end of the draft, but we still have 2 more days for it to come true. Dawson and I almost made it a reality in the first round of our draft; I don't think me moving up to get Pettis counts as a blockbuster)

Season Long Predictions

I'm not going to get into all of the players I think will disappoint or excite their fantasy owners throughout the year; there are experts out there who can do that far better than I ever could. I'm also not sure how valuable that is as a prediction method. I'd much rather find out information about which players are really good at playing football, than to hear the lazy analysis about "Player X is in a bad situation, therefor he will have a disappointing year". Situation might seem easier to predict, but I think situation can change far quicker than most people expect, and it can throw off rankings. Look at last year; players like Royce Freeman or George Kittle were hyped or ignored based primarily on their situation rather than their skill. When I listen to analysts say a team will have a bad or good offense with a strong sense of certainty, it sets off strong alarms for me. Here are my predictions where I think common knowledge has it wrong.

Better than Expected

• Detroit Lions - Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself things will be alright since I'm all in on the Lions' skill position players this year, but I'm not sure they will be as bad as everyone is predicting. I like Matt Stafford, and John has said he gets the sense too that last year was a "gas leak season" due to his broken back and some coaching issues. 
• New York Jets - Another case that might be wishful thinking as a LeVeon Bell owner, but I think the Jets are primed to take a jump this year. I think Darnold showed well for a rookie, and that Adam Gase's negative influence is a little over played. 
• Baltimore Ravens - Specifically their passing game, as I think everyone is of the opinion than their run game should be fine. People speak of Lamar Jackson like all he can do is run, and are down on their WRs and TEs, but I just get the sense that the passing game could take a step forward and their might be some good value there. 

Worse than Expected

• Chicago Bears - I worry about the Bears a little; I don't think Trubisky is a good NFL QB, and anytime you don't have a good QB things have the potential to go sideways. I like the rest of their skill options, but just have a sense things could be disappointing. This might not stop me from drafting multiple Bears in our draft however.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -  Another case where I don't think Winston is very good either, and people are just ignoring it because he's a good fantasy QB. If Winston is BAD, there's no Fitzpatrick ready to come in if they bench him. Maybe you say they wont bench him because there's no one else, but the thing is there's always someone else (As we all know - There's IS room in the outfield). 
• Pittsburgh Steelers, San Fransisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals - Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I have a tougher time saying what teams I think will disappoint rather than improve. These three teams are at the top of my list for ones that I can see having a majorly disappointing 2019 however. Maybe Brown was the one propping up Pittsburgh these past few years. Maybe the 49ers will end up with an unsettled QB situation that somehow is even more unsettled than the injuries they endured last season. Maybe Kliff Kingsbury is not a good coach and they get killed behind a bad offensive line. 

Individual Team Predictions

As always, I like to actually address the picks people make in some form during the draft. Looking back at previous years, these thoughts tend to be pretty inaccurate; last year wasn't exactly predictions as much as key year-changing moments, but I expressed worry about players like James White, Tyler Lockett, Clarke taking too many TEs, Adrian Petersen, while being high on the Jets' RBs & Kelvin Benjamin. (In fairness, I had some good calls as well; worry about Jamaal Williams, Trey Burton, James Washington & Ronald Jones while liking the upside of Calvin Ridley.)

So, take with a bigger grain of salt than usual, but here are some hopefully bold predictions for your teams

• John - John becomes the first team to make a trade for a QB. For the record I like both of the guys he ended up with, however it wouldn't surprise me if one of the two of them disappointed and John has to look to another team to shore up the one shaky position on his team.
• Andrew - Andrew's RBs all stay healthy this year and he is the clear leader at this position. No one has more upside at the position, but also all guys come with some of the greatest injury risk at the position. 
• Mike - Antonio Brown is off the Raiders next season after a year full of drama, but he comes back in 2020 with a different team and is back to his old self. This doesn't help Mike this year, but someone gets a good value after people avoid the headache that Brown can cause in next year's draft. (As a positive prediction, I predict Hakeem Butler to eventually be a star for Mike as his pocket player)
• Shayne - Shayne ends up with the breakout player of the year; either Lamar Jackson or Christian Kirk goes on to have a season that vaults them to the top of their position, with Kirk being my top WR prospect to make a Brown/Hopkins/Thomas type leap.
• Aaron - I predict Aaron makes a trade this year. I know what he has said, but I think he comes around to the position that trades can be enjoyable and you can enjoy fantasy without it dominating your time. 
• Stan & Dawson - This is a joint prediction for these two teams, but I think both Stan and Dawson are back in the playoffs after a few down seasons. Don't ask me who they bump out, since everyone's team looks to be very strong on paper, however I think both teams appear focused, had strong drafts, and are due for some good fantasy luck.
• Clarke - How do I predict the team that has had almost everything go right for them the past two seasons? Predict everything continuing to be rosy in the hopes of a reverse jinx, or make a controversial call for the sake of controversy? After looking over his team, here's probably my boldest prediction of all - Clarke is fighting to make the playoffs this year. I'm down on both of his QBs, I see the potential for serious question marks at his RBs behind Chubb, and will he really be wanting to play 2 TEs this season? (That being said, my alternate prediction is Darrell Henderson turns into an absolute star and Clarke hits on this year's breakout player. I had an immediate sense of regret/terror when Clarke made that pick, and I can't shake that feeling on how it will play out.)
• Brett - Brett will be rewarded this season for his pick of Daniel Jones. I know what the team says, but I think he gets playing time this year and actually does ok for himself. 
• Steve - Steve will end up with 5 startable RBs most weeks, and will drive himself crazy trying to figure out which guys to put into his lineup. It's the ideal situation to be in.
• Travis - Travis will trade Aaron Rodgers to Shayne at some point this season. It will set Travis up for the future, and help cement Shayne's team as one that is going for it this year (but will probably result in Shayne losing in the semi-finals as usual)
• Keith - Regardless of the outcome of my team this year, I won't freak out and overreact to my results. Last year after I started to struggle, I felt the pressure over what I felt were a number of poor decisions and missed picks on my part. This year, the results could be the same; however, I feel fully confident in my process and there is no instance of "Well maybe I should have taken that player instead". I reached for the guys I wanted, and even if I miss the playoffs know that I would not have done a thing differently. (The only thing that could tilt me seriously is bad injury luck)

On the Next Last Place Wisdom

• I absolutely start freaking out and am filled with regret after a bad week one.
• Miles Sanders rushes for 200 yards and vultures all of Wentz' points. How could I have been so stupid as to pass on Sanders who I really like?
• Why would I draft a TE in the 2nd round? Especially one on the Giants? I have 2 RB injuries already and I passed on James White for this?