Last Place Wisdom: Week 9 - The Definitive Pre-Trade Deadline TFLOEG Extravaganza

So reality has a way of coming out and surprising you as soon as you start to get too complacent. A few days after I commit to writing about the potential trade targets on the teams I saw as clear sellers, I had to come to the realization that maybe I don’t know anything about how this season is going to play out. For those of you who haven’t been paying attention, over the past 2 weeks, the four basement dwellers who I thought were easy to count out of the playoff picture, have gone 7-1 with the only loss being myself to Andrew in a matchup one of us needed to lose. Not only that, as even bad teams will occasionally squeak out wins by catching an opponent on a bad week, but the wins have been convincing, beating everybody but Clarke, type wins.

Basically, within a couple of weeks we went from what looked to be 3 teams fighting for 2 spots, to 8 teams fighting for 4 spots. Maybe I’ve swung too far in my assessment, from being overly pessimistic at the chances of the basement dwellers to make a move, to being too optimistic at the potential Stan and Dawson have to make up ground, but at this point every team theoretically is still in the hunt. I know there have been jokes made about how easy it is to make the playoffs in our league and calls for reducing this number in some sense, but this is the reason I’ve fought for the current 8 team playoff..every team gets to play meaningful games until week 9 or 10, and in my opinion this is much more fun for everyone involved.

Basically, that’s a long way of saying that I wouldn’t have a problem with nobody being sellers going into the trade deadline, but also that I don’t have a problem expanding the group of sellers to include teams like Travis and Aaron who have been firmly in the playoffs up till this point, but who are now in real danger of missing them. Aaron’s early season strategy of filling up his roster with good but not great players worked for a while, however injuries have absolutely crushed his team at the moment. Losing Lynch, losing Ajayi, Hyde losing his lead back role, Crowell being incredibly inconsistent, and Gronkowski being disappointing has left Aaron struggling. Aaron’s strategy wasn’t bad, because sometimes you can’t control for injuries, and as much as he might not want to hear it, it might be time to sell and reload for another attempt next season.

My move yesterday helps make it obvious that I’m not particularly looking at selling at this point. Getting Lamar Miller isn’t exactly going all-in, but he helps solidify a RB position for me that I haven’t been comfortable with since McKinnon went down. Dawson is looking like much more a seller at this point, and with what looks like the toughest remaining schedule in the league I think that’s a good idea. Travis had the foresight to propose a trade for Courtland Sutton before the Thomas trade occurred, but the end result of the deal doesn’t set either Travis or Andrew apart as sellers or buyers, and the end result will be interesting to watch as these 2 teams are locked in a fight for a playoff spot.

Guys Who Should be Available (for the right price)

Stan – Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, Chris Thompson

·         Stan has won 2 games in a row, and he’s not exactly looking to sell at the moment. Like I said, I don’t blame him, although he should at least consider it should the right offer be made. These 3 players aren’t likely keepers for him, and could potentially fit in as at least a flex on any team in the league.

Dawson – Lamar Miller, Sterling Shephard, Sammy Watkins, Philip Rivers, David Njoku

·         Unlike Stan, Dawson is looking to sell. I think Lamar Miller was his most no-brainer guy to trade away, however he needs to decide if Shephard, Watkins or Njoku could be a keeper for him next year, or are worth more by being turned into possible draft picks.

Andrew – Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, Pat Mahomes, Latavius Murray/Dalvin Cook, Josh Gordon or Doug Baldwin.

·         I don’t see Andrew being a seller at this point since he actually holds a playoff spot, however he has some of the most interesting options available if he decides that is the best course of action. I find I typically have less of a sense of what Andrew is thinking or doing in fantasy, but if he really decided he was not going to have a shot this year, players like his RBs or Mahomes could be the biggest swing potential if he decided to get rid of them with the possible exception of…

Keith – Antonio Brown, Kenyan Drake, Larry Fitzgerald, Trey Burton, Jalen Richard

·         Antonio Brown. I was ready to sell the cornerstone of my team earlier in the season, and if someone would have made a solid offer he would be gone. Much like Shayne experienced some sellers remorse with Aaron Rodgers, I definitely would have gone through the same thoughts and emotions with Brown. At this point I don’t think I sell, but if I have a bad loss to Travis this week maybe my thinking changes dramatically. If it does, feel free to make me an offer on any of the players on this list.

Steve – Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Matt Ryan, Matt Breida, John Brown

·         Steve has indicated he’s a bit of a seller with his moving out of Allen, however he’s not in full blown fire sale mode. If he is, he has tough decisions to make with Breida and Brown who are having fantastic years and could be kept at a great value, but might now make Steve’s top 4 keeper list with Fournette, Mixon and Hill having 3 of the positions locked down.

Aaron – Tom Brady or Mitch Trubisky, Robert Woods, Isaiah Crowell, Rob Gronkowski

·         I think Aaron should sell given what injuries have done to his team, however at .500 he has the best record of all of the teams fighting for the playoffs. If he does sell, Gronkowski is the best candidate to be moved, as his upside might be able to net Aaron some good pieces. Woods is another possibility to be moved, and while he’s probably a keeper at this point in the season, Aaron really needs to get himself a solid RB he can rely on going forward.

Travis – Marvin Jones or Devin Funchess

·         Travis is where he is thanks to the number of points scored against him, and that probably makes him the least likely name on the list to sell. But maybe he has upset Fantasy Karma in some way, and this year might just not be his year despite a strong roster. If that is the case, Jones or Funchess could potentially be moved for the high draft picks that could set Travis up as a favourite next year.

Now some of these might be far fetched, but if you’re willing to get creative and offer up the right package in return, these are the players I could see potentially being available. As far as what might be moved in return for help now, here are the most valuable clear pieces to sell

Guys Who Could be Moved

Mike: Will Fuller – In first place it has to be tempting to see what he could potentially get this year for someone who can’t help him at the moment.

Brett: David Johnson or Austin Ekeler – Both guys are valuable contributors to Brett already, but someone might potentially value them more

Andrew: Derrius Guice or Doug Baldwin – I don’t see Andrew moving either guy, but if he were to go for it this year, either guy could be moved to help him out.

John: John has already traded a lot of his future value for guys to help him immediately. Maybe Jay Ajayi fits here, but most likely John has to look at moving draft picks if he wants to add anyone else.

Keith: Jerrick McKinnon was the main piece I have with more future value than immediate value. I’m looking at draft picks if I want more players.

Shayne: Jordan Howard – If Howard get’s right, he’s a great value in the 10^th round. Unfortunately, Shayne would need to find a seller who things Howard can regain his job as the lead back that he’s been losing to Cohen.

Travis: Sony Michel or Courtland Sutton – Michel or Sutton are the guys that stand out that Travis could offer to improve his team immediately. Otherwise he would have to hope someone sees value in long-shot WRs like Moore, Callaway or Miller.

Clarke: DJ Moore or Aaron Jones – Of the guys Clarke could theoretically move, these are the two that could gain him more value now at the expense of future value. How much better he could make his team by trading these two remains to be seen, so the good news is Clarke’s team is probably as good as it is going to get already.

On the Next Last Place Wisdom

•         I recap the flurry of activity that takes place before the trade deadline now that I have lit a fire under your feet.
•         I make you question whether all my advice is just a complicated plot to weaken my rivals as I gun for the last playoff spot.
•       All of the basement dwellers get a rude awakening after our miracle runs come to a premature end.