Last Place Wisdom: Draft Chaos Theory

So it’s become a yearly tradition for me to offer a selection of post draft thoughts following the best day of the Fantasy Football season. This has usually been accomplished the day after the draft, but my new situation at work provides me with a lot less time for off-topic (at least as work is concerned) musings and football related tom-foolery. What this means for Last Place Wisdom on a weekly basis still remains to be seen; I might have to come up with a slightly different format for how I share what is on my mind this season, but I am going to do my best to put something out at least semi-consistently.

It was no secret that I wasn’t feeling super confident going into the draft. Despite having 2 top picks, I was not set on which players I was going to be taking, or even those guys I was hoping I would be able to draft. My biggest rivals had loaded up and were looking to be strong, and the level of competition among all owners has reached a point that I don’t see too many obviously weak teams coming out of the draft. I felt the pressure on Monday night, and only time will tell how things end up working out.

Getting to the actual players I ended up taking; Fitzgerald is nice and reliable, and unless he turns into Brandon Marshall 2 years ago, I should be able to count on him to help solidify my lineup. Royce Freeman on the other hand is a different story. Fantasy Analysts I like and respect have drastically differing opinions on this player, some see him as just another guy in a timeshare, while others see him as a potential star with a clear path for lots of playing time. I have doubts that I am being blinded by the success of rookie running backs last season, which caused me to go against my traditional strongly held belief that rookies are always overvalued. After learning that Freeman went to Oregon, I was firmly expecting John to draft him with his first pick, knowing that John isn’t afraid to draft with his heart. After learning that John wasn’t going to draft this year’s Derrick Henry but was going a different direction, it made me rethink everything. Were John and I swapping draft strategies after all these years?

I don’t know who else I wanted to take with that pick, maybe Travis Kelce, but I can’t help but think about the possible divergent paths my season might take based on that selection. That’s going to inspire the rest of my column this year; players where I think owners might have considered going with someone different at that point in the draft, and how that could affect the fantasy timeline we get to experience in 2018. On that note, let’s roll the dice and tumble down the multiverse.

Clarke: Point of Divergence – All his fantasy Tight Ends

·         Clarke went a little off the board with his strategy to try and corner the market on high upside fantasy TEs. Obviously it didn’t hurt him too much last year, but ending up with not only the Ertz/Kelce duo, but also Kittle and Howard, means that Clarke has passed up on a lot of value at other positions to load up on the position I personally would rather just ignore. If Clarke runs into some injuries or unpredictability at RB, he might wish he had more options there.

Dawson: Point of Divergence – Rookie Bell Cow RB

·         Dawson’s biggest need coming out of the draft is finding a star running back to anchor his roster, and without his first couple of picks he was forced to try and find that elsewhere. Dawson decided to get in on the rookie RB lottery by taking Ronald Jones, who was highly thought of before a horrible pre-season. He ended up taking him a few picks before Nick Chubb, another highly thought of rookie caught in a timeshare. Whether Dawson should have gone with his love for the Browns will be worth watching as the season plays out.

Andrew: Point of Divergence – It’s not about the Benjamins

·         Despite the negative comments made about Buffalo’s #1 wide receiver at the draft, from further discussion Andrew remains high on one of his original players, Kelvin Benjamin. Andrew chose to continue his strategy of loading up on Seahawks by taking Lockett a few picks before Benjamin ended up going. Buffalo has to throw the ball to somebody, if the offense is not as bad as predicted Andrew might be kicking himself for letting Benjamin fall to Stan.

Stan: Point of Divergence – J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets

·         After a concussion in the preseason, Stan decided to throw back Isaiah Crowell, who Aaron took one pick after the spot Stan would have kept him in. Stan then went and selected Bilal Powell a few rounds later to get a piece of the Jets backfield. I don’t think much of Powell, since he is almost always thought of late round value but you never actually want him on your team. One of those guys could have some good value; whether Stan picked the right one is up in the air.

Aaron: Point of Divergence – None?….what sort of crazy timeline are we living in???

·         I hope Aaron doesn’t take offense to this, but he has not been the greatest drafter in TFLOEG history. This year however, I think he nailed all of his draft picks. I’m not sure if getting out of the War Room™ and focusing more on drafting than on theatrics is the reason behind it, but I don’t even know what I would do differently given his draft. Maybe Aaron’s point of divergence already occurred when he traded his first pick last season, but seeing how it all plays out this year will be fascinating. Also, Aaron wins the Mr. Manager of the Draft award, he's setting himself up for some high expectations at this rate. 

Mike: Point of Divergence – First pick….AP?

·         Since McCoy is really more of a keeper than a pick in my mind, Mike’s first pick in the 2018 draft was Adrian Peterson, a guy who 2 weeks ago did not have an NFL team. AP looked good in the preseason, but whether he can hold on to the job in Washington is tough to predict. With Rookies like Chubb or Jones, veterans like Crowell or Barber, or high upside players like Aaron Jones available, Mike had different options he could have selected.

Musical Interlude: My regular musical interludes at this point are going to need a new sponsor, now that Papa John's is no longer actually Papa John's. For this week however, the song of the week needs no additional introduction. 

Brett – Point of Divergence – Running Backs? Who needs ‘em?

·         Brett went into the draft with Johnson and McCaffery as starting running backs, and he came out of the draft with the same 2 guys. Ekeler and White have some upside, but could be hard to trust if things don’t turn out the right way. I don’t know where I think he should’ve taken a RB over a WR since I like the guys he ended up with, but I think at some point this season he will look back in regret on not ending up with a little more RB depth.

Shayne – Point of Divergence – Post Draft Regret

·         Shayne’s season could turn depending based on the moves he made after the draft. From the outside it looks like Shayne had some regrets about not ending up with a few Packers on his roster this year, and it could swing his season if Cobb gets cut, or if Rodgers is not as much of an upgrade over Big Ben to make up for giving up Chubb and Edelman.

Travis – Point of Divergence – Sex Panthers

·         Travis got in on the rookie WRs early, making DJ Moore the first receiver off the board, and then taking the 2^nd in Anthony Miller two rounds later. Rookie WRs have not had a good return on investment recently, so taking Moore over the more reliable Devin Funchess could have a big impact this season. Going forward, taking Miller over a different rookie like Calvin Ridley is a point of divergence worth watching.

Steve – Point of Divergence – Eddy Lacy when he was good vs Eddie Lacy when he was bad (and fat)

·         Steve used a 3^rd round pick taking on taking Jamaal Williams over a lot of more established RBs (such as his Raider’s own Marshawn Lynch). Williams was very good last year, but it’s quite possible he’s also not even the best RB on Green Bay, even if he has the first best shot. This is a bit of a Point of Divergence for me as well, as I wasn’t willing to keep Williams for a 4^th rounder. Steve and I ran into a similar situation a few years back with me throwing back Melvin Gordon only to have him become a star after Steve took him.

John – Point of Divergence –

·         John’s decision to take Aaron Rodgers came as a bit of a surprise to me, but in hindsight after seeing how strong his overall roster was getting the top QB in the league made a lot of sense. However, that was all thrown out the window after Brees fell to John in the 12^th round, which is absolutely insane, the QB hate has gone too far. John would have had his pick of players with the 3^rd pick, but ended up with Mariota, Chubb and Edelman. Whether that was the right move, or if keeping Rodgers would have been better, or if going a different way and drafting Sony Michel, could determine if John can get over the hump and capture another title.

Keith – Point of Divergence – Heart over Head

·         It’s easier to do this for myself, as I know exactly what was going through my head the entire draft. Besides the few I’ve already mentioned, a couple of players stand out. Perhaps the poster child for this thought is the draft all those years ago, where I decided I already had Antonio Gates so I could pass on young upstart Jimmy Graham, only to have John take him with the next pick. Ever since Gates flopped for me that year, I’ve hated the TE position. This year my most difficult pick was round 7, since I didn’t have another pick till round 11. I agonized long and hard over whether I should take Trey Burton or Aaron Jones there; I knew if I didn’t take a TE I liked, the other ones would be gone by the time I drafted again, and I would be taking whoever was left at the position in the 14^th round like I usually do. If Burton disappoints and Jones ends up the starter, I’m going to have a lot of regret about my eventual decision, which went against my usual thought process on the position.

The other player I’m watching is James Washington. I wanted another Steeler on my roster, and Washington would have been my ideal pocket player this year. Maybe I overestimated his sleeper appeal, but I had a bad feeling one of you knuckleheads would steal him, so I went against my brain and drafted him probably 2-3 rounds before I should have. I probably should have taken Booker at that spot, and if Freeman ends up disappointing, this could be the point that sends me spinning down my own darkest timeline.

 Given how long this took to write, don’t expect regular Last Place Wisdom’s of this length too often, unless I’m fortunate enough to get regular quiet days at work. In the meantime, nobody get shot, lose any limbs, or grow an evil goatee.  

On the next Last Place Wisdom

• We're firmly entrenched in the darkest timeline, as everyone hates their fantasy teams except for Aaron who is running away with the league.
• I'm writing a mid-season report card after not finding time for any more blog posts.