Let's CRUNCH the numbers with Aaron 2017
Let's
CRUNCH The Numbers This Holiday Season With Aaron
Sponsored By
Get
the kettle boiling, mix up some hot cocoa and nestle yourself down for a
comfortable evening because we are going to be analyzing Fantasy Football
numbers like you never imagined! If you
have a Snuggie, throw that on for extra comfort and you will be way ahead of
the rest of the Managers in the TFLOEG.
Despite
the fact that there is still one more week of the regular season left, I have
decided to conduct this statistical analysis at this moment in time because our
Fantasy Football regular season has now concluded. The relevance of the last week of the regular
season is questionable as some playoff bound teams already locked in place and
their destiny is predetermined. As a
result, that will throw off the true value of certain players in the world of Fantasy
Football.
Here
are a few rules that I have created to help make this statistical analysis as
accurate and relevant as possible:
·
Quarterbacks - they are not included as part of my
statistical analysis. The reason being
is that quarterbacks score significantly more points than other positions and
thus will bring the average points scored per round up. Plus there are 32 starting quarterbacks in
the NFL and there are only 12 managers.
So there is plenty of options to work with and as a result grabbing a
good quarterback can occur at just about any round.
·
Defensive Players - these players are also not
included as part of my statistical analysis.
The reason being is similar to the quarterback position in that this
position has a different scoring structure as compared to the other positions. Likewise, this position scores less than the
other positions and I feel that will weight my statistical analysis in a
negative fashion.
·
Injuries - I am going to create my own rule here
and dictate that any player that was injured for four or more games this season
will be excluded from my calculations.
The reason being is that injuries are completely random and totally
unpredictable. If a player has been
injured for four or more games, then I feel it is not truly indicative of the
players season nor is it indicative of the Manager who selected that player. The only exception to this rule is my second
round pick, which you can pretty much set your watch to that my second round
pick will go down with a season ending injury in week 2 of the regular season
(I am really sorry Joe Mixon that I had to ruin your career at such a young age
for next year).
·
Keepers - As Keith alluded to in his wonderful
blog, keepers with a high value kept in a high round are referred to as "The
Browns (non Cleveland variety)". In
no way shape of form would DeAndre Hopkins or Mark Ingram be drafted in the 9th
round of any Fantasy Football draft if there were no keepers. As a result, these players are going to
heavily, heavily influence the average points received by a player in that
particular round. I simply have to
exclude all keepers from my statistical analysis if there are going to be any
conclusions to draw from the 2017 draft.
So, with all that outlined, let's get CRUNCHing
some numbers!!!!!!!
Round
1
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Steve
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Clarke |
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Leonard
Fournette
|
Amari
Cooper
|
Julio
Jones
|
Christian
McCaffrey
|
Dalvin
Cook
|
Keenan
Allen
|
Ezekiel
Elliott
|
Marshawn
Lynch
|
Derrick
Henry
|
LeSean
McCoy
|
Demaryius
Thomas
|
Melvin
Gordon
|
Player's Status
|
Running
Back
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Keeper
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Partially
Suspended
|
Running
Back
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Keeper
|
Points Earned
|
198.6
|
123.4
|
N/A
(203.4 For S&G's)
|
185.7
|
N/A
(60.9 For S&G's)
|
207.4
|
N/A
(174.6 For S&G's)
|
142.3
|
N/A
(111.3 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(232.9 For S&G's)
|
150.7
|
N/A
(243.7 For S&G's)
|
Round 1 Average = 168.0 points.
Round 1 Standard Deviation = 33.9 points.
Round 1 Best Pick = Clarke's pick of Keenan Allen.
Round 1 Worst Pick = Steve's pick of Amari Cooper.
Round
2
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Clarke
|
Player Selected
|
DeVante
Parker
|
Doug
Martin
|
Todd
Gurley
|
Kelvin
Benjamin
|
Adrian
Peterson
|
Michael
Crabtree
|
Aaron
Rodgers
|
Greg
Olsen
|
DeMarco
Murray
|
Golden
Tate
|
Joe
Mixon
|
Kareem
Hunt
|
Player's Status
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Partially
Suspended
|
Running
Back
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Running
Back
|
Points Earned
|
93.1
|
N/A
(71.8 For S&G's)
|
353.3
|
107.5
|
N/A
(76.4 For S&G's)
|
144.1
|
N/A
(163.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(32.1 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(153.0 For S&G's)
|
158.6
|
121.6
|
260.2
|
Round 2 Average = 176.9 points.
Round 2 Standard Deviation = 95.2 points.
Round 2 Best Pick = Travis's pick of Todd
Gurley. You should have held on to him
Travis, that was the best player in the league!
Round 2 Worst Pick = Steve's pick of DeVante Parker. That is two rounds in a row that Steve made
the worst pick of the round.
Round
3
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Clarke
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Mike
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Rob
Gronkowski
|
Drew
Brees
|
Danny
Woodhead
|
Chris
Hogan
|
Jarvis
Landry
|
Bilal
Powell
|
Larry
Fitzgerald
|
Allen
Robinson
|
Dez
Bryant
|
Matt
Ryan
|
Travis
Kelce
|
Brandon
Marshall
|
Player's Status
|
Keeper
|
Quarterback
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Quarterback
|
Keeper
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(193.9 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(299.56 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(40.2 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(93.6 For S&G's)
|
195.3
|
129.6
|
197.44
|
N/A
(2.2 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(150.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(250.02 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(193.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(25.4 For S&G's)
|
Round 3 Average = 174.1 points. Notice how the average for rounds 2 and 3
have been higher then round 1. This will
hopefully silence the critics who thought I should have gone with a 1st round
pick with my trade with Mike.
Round 3 Standard Deviation = 38.6 points.
Round 3 Best Pick = Shayne's pick of Larry
Fitzgerald.
Round 3 Worst Pick = Mike's pick of Bilal
Powell. The numbers don't lie, but Mike
almost won a 2nd Alan Powell Wisdom Award for his Power Powell Pickup. The wisdom lies with the Powell's.
Round
4
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Clarke
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Frank
Gore
|
Jordan
Reed
|
Zach
Ertz
|
Jay
Ajayi
|
Willie
Snead
|
Mike
Gillislee
|
Eric
Decker
|
Russell
Wilson
|
A.J.
Green
|
DeSean
Jackson
|
Corey
Davis
|
Antonio
Brown
|
Player's Status
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Tight
End
|
Keeper
|
Partially
Suspended
|
Running
Back
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Quarterback
|
Keeper
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Points Earned
|
150.5
|
N/A
(50.6 For S&G's)
|
164.0
|
N/A
(124.1 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(13.7 For S&G's)
|
68.3
|
86.0
|
N/A
(413.48 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(188.1 For S&G's)
|
113.6
|
N/A
(53.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(266.8 For S&G's)
|
Round 4 Average = 116.5 points.
Round 4 Standard Deviation = 40.8 points.
Round 4 Best Pick = Clarke's pick of Zach
Ertz. The second time Clarke has made
the best pick of the round.
Round 4 Worst Pick = Dawson's pick of Mike
Gillislee.
Round
5
Manager's Pick
|
Clarke
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
Dawson
|
Stan
|
Dawson
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Luke
Kuechly
|
Emmanuel
Sanders
|
Giovani
Bernard
|
Kyle
Rudolph
|
Eddie
Lacy
|
Alshon
Jeffery
|
Pierre
Garcon
|
Randall
Cobb
|
Tyler
Eifert
|
Martellus
Bennett
|
Jameis
Winston
|
Jonathan
Stewart
|
Player's Status
|
Defensive
Player
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Tight
End
|
Running
Back
|
Keeper
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Quarterback
|
Running
Back
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(117.5 For S&G's)
|
93.0
|
121.2
|
131.9
|
25.6
|
N/A
(167.1 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(70.0 For S&G's)
|
112.1
|
N/A
(6.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(43.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(229.94 For S&G's)
|
119.2
|
Round 5 Average = 100.5 points.
Round 5 Standard Deviation = 38.9 points.
Round 5 Best Pick = Brett's pick of Kyle
Rudolph.
Round 5 Worst Pick = Andrew's pick of Eddie
Lacy. That doesn't surprise me at
all. Too many cheeseburgers.
Round
6
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Theo
Riddick
|
Tyrell
Williams
|
Hunter
Henry
|
Cam
Newton
|
Duke
Johnson
|
Corey
Coleman
|
Delanie
Walker
|
T.Y.
Hilton
|
Le'Veon
Bell
|
C.J.
Anderson
|
Tom
Brady
|
Jordy
Nelson
|
Player's Status
|
Running
Back
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Keeper
|
Quarterback
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Tight
End
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Quarterback
|
Keeper
|
Points Earned
|
126.3
|
104.1
|
N/A
(106.4 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(337.88 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(170.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(52.7 For S&G's)
|
138.1
|
N/A
(145.2 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(299.1 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(155.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(349.28 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(112.7 For S&G's)
|
Round 6 Average = 122.8 points.
Round 6 Standard Deviation = 17.3 points.
Round 6 Best Pick = Shayne's pick of Delanie
Walker. This the third round that a
tight end has been selected as the best pick of the round.
Round 6 Worst Pick = Mike's pick of Tyrell
Williams.
Round
7
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Paul
Perkins
|
Brandin
Cooks
|
Stefon
Diggs
|
Tyreek
Hill
|
Doug
Baldwin
|
Matt
Forte
|
Ameer
Abdullah
|
Zay
Jones
|
John
Brown
|
Isaiah
Crowell
|
Mike
Evans
|
Devonta
Freeman
|
Player's Status
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Running
Back
|
Keeper
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(16.3 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(172.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(153.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(212.7 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(165.8 For S&G's)
|
104.9
|
N/A
(103.5 For S&G's)
|
53.6
|
N/A
(59.4 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(133.4 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(161.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(162.9 For S&G's)
|
Round 7 Average = 79.3 points.
Round 7 Standard Deviation = 36.3 points.
Round 7 Best Pick = Dawson's pick of Matt Forte.
Round 7 Worst Pick = Aaron's pick of Zay Jones.
Round
8
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Dawson
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Clarke
|
Player Selected
|
Martavis
Bryant
|
Davante
Adams
|
Donte
Moncrief
|
David
Johnson
|
Odell
Beckham
|
Carlos
Hyde
|
Ty
Montgomery
|
Jamison
Crowder
|
Dak
Prescott
|
Rob
Kelley
|
Michael
Thomas
|
Marlon
Mack
|
Player's Status
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Quarterback
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Running
Back
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(101.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(185.5 For S&G's)
|
66.1
|
N/A
(11.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(61.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(187.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(80.10 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(126.4 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(291.9 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(41.2 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(199.1 For S&G's)
|
82.0
|
Round 8 Average = 74.1 points.
Round 8 Standard Deviation = 11.2 points.
Round 8 Best Pick = Clarke's pick of Marlon
Mack. Oddly enough Marlon Mack was the
best pick of the round, but keep in mind that only 2 players were picked that
weren't keepers or were forced to sit out due to injuries.
Round 8 Worst Pick = Dawson's pick of Donte
Moncrief.
Round
9
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Steve
|
Aaron
|
Steve
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
DeAndre
Hopkins
|
Tevin
Coleman
|
Andrew
Luck
|
Adam
Thielen
|
Bobby
Wagner
|
Mark
Ingram
|
Cooper
Kupp
|
Terrance
West
|
Samaje
Perine
|
Sammy
Watkins
|
Lamar
Miller
|
Jeremy
Hill
|
Player's Status
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Defensive
Player
|
Keeper
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Running
Back
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(269.3 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(150.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(0.0 For S&G's)
|
186.1
|
N/A
(135.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(243.6 For S&G's)
|
149.9
|
N/A
(28.1 For S&G's)
|
99.2
|
N/A
(126.8 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(173.8 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(15.2 For S&G's)
|
Round 9 Average = 145.1 points.
Round 9 Standard Deviation = 43.7 points.
Round 9 Best Pick = Brett's pick of Adam Thielen.
Round 9 Worst Pick = Steve's pick of Samaje Perine.
Round
10
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Travis
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Marcus
Mariota
|
Terrelle
Pryor
|
LeGarrette
Blount
|
Derek
Carr
|
Jimmy
Graham
|
Josh
Doctson
|
Kenny
Golladay
|
Jordan
Howard
|
Alvin
Kamara
|
Kevin
White
|
Jeremy
Maclin
|
C.J.
Prosise
|
Player's Status
|
Quarterback
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Running
Back
|
Quarterback
|
Keeper
|
Keeper
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Keeper
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(225.12 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(40.0 For S&G's)
|
98.3
|
N/A
(245.62 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(137.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(96.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(66.6 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(188.3 For S&G's)
|
252.1
|
N/A
(1.6 For S&G's)
|
82.0
|
N/A
(14.0 For S&G's)
|
Round 10 Average = 144.1 points
Round 10 Standard Deviation = 93.9 points
Round 10 Best Pick = John's pick of Alvin
Kamara. This is more proof that John can
snipe the best players out there in the deep rounds. A pick in round 10 for John is pretty much
the same as a pick in round 1 for the rest of us.
Round 10 Worst Pick = Travis's pick of Jeremy
Maclin.
Round
11
Manager's Pick
|
Keith
|
Clarke
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Steve
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Keith
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Jordan
Matthews
|
D'Onta
Foreman
|
Ted
Ginn Jr.
|
Tavon
Austin
|
Kenny
Britt
|
Darren
McFadden
|
John
Ross
|
Robby
Anderson
|
Rex
Burkheart
|
Rishard
Matthews
|
Thomas
Rawls
|
Jamaal
Williams
|
Player's Status
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Running
Back
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(46.7 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(54.0 For S&G's)
|
133.1
|
35.9
|
48.6
|
-0.2
|
N/A
(-0.8 For S&G's)
|
170.7
|
N/A
(120.8 For S&G's)
|
130.5
|
26.8
|
120.5
|
Round 11 Average = 83.2 points.
Round 11 Standard Deviation = 62.5 points.
Round 11 Best Pick = Aaron's pick of Robby
Anderson. This is a hard pill to
swallow. I let him go to the waiver wire
and Keith even complemented me for letting go of a lot of dead weight on my
team. Then from week 7 onwards, Robby
Anderson was pretty much good for a touchdown a game.
Round 11 Worst Pick = Dawson's pick of Darren
McFadden. Although, you can't blame
Dawson for picking Run DMC as with the pending suspension of Elliot, there was
potential in this pick.
Round
12
Round 12
|
||||||||||||
Manager's Pick
|
Shayne
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
John
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Dawson
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Joey
Bosa
|
Jacquizz
Rodgers
|
Devin
Funchess
|
Jeremy
Langford
|
Latavius
Murray
|
Mike
Williams
|
James
White
|
Darren
Sproles
|
Marvin
Jones
|
Jamaal
Charles
|
Kirk
Cousins
|
Matthew
Stafford
|
Player's Status
|
Defensive
Player
|
Running
Back
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Quarterback
|
Quarterback
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(90.5 For S&G's)
|
42.8
|
151.7
|
N/A
(0.0 For S&G's)
|
126.1
|
N/A
(14.7 For S&G's)
|
107.0
|
N/A
(15.4 For S&G's)
|
178.5
|
57.0
|
N/A
(333.1 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(308.52 For S&G's)
|
Round 12 Average = 110.5 points.
Round 12 Standard Deviation = 53.0 points.
Round 12 Best Pick = John's pick of Marvin
Jones. Once again, John snipes the
equivalent of what would be a 1st rounder in round 12. How does he do it? He obviously possesses deep round voodoo
magic!
Round 12 Worst Pick = Mike's pick of Jacquizz
Rodgers
Round
13
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Dawson
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Mike
Wallace
|
Sterling
Shepard
|
Jaron
Brown
|
Torrey
Smith
|
Philip
Rivers
|
Eric
Ebron
|
J.J.
Watt
|
Kwon
Alexander
|
Coby
Fleener
|
Ben
Roethlisberger
|
Landon
Collins
|
Austin
Hooper
|
Player's Status
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Quarterback
|
Tight
End
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Defensive
Player
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Quarterback
|
Defensive
Player
|
Tight
End
|
Points Earned
|
116.7
|
N/A
(119.0 For S&G's)
|
85.7
|
73.7
|
N/A
(306.42 For S&G's)
|
106.5
|
N/A
(14.7 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(85.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(52.5 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(325.74 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(107.0 For S&G's)
|
92.1
|
Round 13 Average = 94.9 points.
Round 13 Standard Deviation = 17.0 points.
Round 13 Best Pick = Steve's pick of Mike Wallace.
Round 13 Worst Pick = Brett's pick of Torrey Smith.
Round
14
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Travis
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
John
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Khalil
Mack
|
Wendell
Smallwood
|
Robert
Turbin
|
Jason
Witten
|
Tyler
Lockett
|
Kenny
Stills
|
Cole
Beasley
|
Curtis
Samuel
|
Myles
Garrett
|
Jared
Cook
|
James
Conner
|
Carson
Wentz
|
Player's Status
|
Defensive
Player
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Tight
End
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Defensive
Player
|
Tight
End
|
Running
Back
|
Quarterback
|
Points Earned
|
N/A
(92.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(36.7 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(22.4 For S&G's)
|
112.8
|
92.8
|
143.8
|
75.4
|
N/A
(26.9 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(37.0 For S&G's)
|
102.8
|
14.4
|
N/A
(356.74 For S&G's)
|
Round 14 Average = 90.3 points.
Round 14 Standard Deviation = 43.6 points.
Round 14 Best Pick = Travis's pick of Kenny Stills. Once again Travis, you made the best
selection of the round, but in the same trade you lost both Kenny Stills and
Todd Gurley.
Round 14 Worst Pick = John's pick of James Conner. I am going to turn a blind eye to this pick
as I still deeply believe in John's deep round voodoo magic.
Round
15
Manager's Pick
|
Shayne
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Travis
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Mike
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
O.J.
Howard
|
DeAndre
Washington
|
Malcolm
Mitchell
|
Danielle
Hunter
|
Devontae
Booker
|
Tarik
Cohen
|
Andy
Dalton
|
Joe
Williams
|
Danny
Amendola
|
Charles
Sims
|
Telvin
Smith
|
Jerrell
Freeman
|
Player's Status
|
Tight
End
|
Running
Back
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Defensive
Player
|
Running
Back
|
Running
Back
|
Quarterback
|
Injury
Plagued Season
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Running
Back
|
Defensive
Player
|
Defensive
Player
|
Points Earned
|
91.2
|
74.7
|
N/A
(0.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(53.0 For S&G's)
|
75.3
|
120.94
|
N/A
(238.02 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(0.0 For S&G's)
|
104.1
|
56.3
|
N/A
(112.0 For S&G's)
|
N/A
(8.5 For S&G's)
|
Round 15 Average = 87.1 points.
Round 15 Standard Deviation = 23.2 points.
Round 15 Best Pick = Travis's pick of Tarik
Cohen. There seems to be a reoccurring
theme of Travis making the best pick in the round and then trading that pick
away????
Round 15 Worst Pick = Stan's pick of Charles Sims.
Pocket
Player Round
Manager's Pick
|
Steve
|
Mike
|
Travis
|
Brett
|
Andrew
|
Dawson
|
Shayne
|
Aaron
|
John
|
Stan
|
Clarke
|
Keith
|
Player Selected
|
Cameron
Meredith
|
Will
Fuller
|
Evan
Engram
|
Travis
Benjamin
|
Patrick
Mahomes
|
David
Njoku
|
Julian
Edelman
|
Mitchell
Trubisky
|
Jonathan
Williams
|
Deshaun
Watson
|
Taywan
Taylor
|
Jimmy
Garoppolo
|
Player's Status
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Tight
End
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Quarterback
|
Tight
End
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Quarterback
|
Running
Back
|
Quarterback
|
Wide
Receiver
|
Quarterback
|
Points Earned
|
0.0
|
97.5
|
143.6
|
100.3
|
0.0
|
74.9
|
0.0
|
153.2
|
0.0
|
213.86
|
47.9
|
83.82
|
Pocket Player Round Best Pick = It is very hard to
quantify which would be the best pick of Pocket Player Round as some Managers
deliberatly selected an injured player knowing they would be back the following
season. Other Managers took a huge risk
on a young player with high upside. So I
am going to simply segregate it out and select the top quartile of picks from
the Pocket Player Round. Those 3 players
would be Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman and Evan Engram as being the best
players in the top quartile.
Pocket Player Round Worst Pick = Once again, it is
hard to quantify which would be the worst pick.
I am going to segregate it out into the bottom quartile and select
Jonathan Williams, Taywan Taylor and David Njoku as the worst picks in the
Pocket Player Round.
Analysis
·
If we were to plot the average points scored per
round against the round number, we do see that there is an overall drop off of
points scored as each round increases:
·
There is an average drop of -5.8 points between
each round.
·
If you are trying to calculate out how many points
you will gain or lose in a trade, simply multiply the difference in rounds by
-5.8. An easy example can be made out of
the trade that Mike and I made for T.Y. Hilton.
I gained Mike's 3rd round pick, and he gained my 11th round pick. -5.8 multiplied by an 8 round differential =
46.4 points.
·
To analyze the trade even further, let's assume
T.Y. Hilton performs as well next year as what he did this year. Mike would then inherit 145.2 points from T.Y
Hilton. The round 11 average is 83.2
points so Mike will have a net point total of 228.4 points for next year due to
our trade. As for myself, I will now be
able to use Mike's third round pick for an average of 174.1 points and now that
my 5th round pick is freed up as I won't be keeping T.Y. Hilton I would be able
to draft a player who would average 100.5 points in next year's draft in the
5th round. That would give me a net
point total of 274.6 points compared to Mike's net total of 228.4 points. That is a difference of 46.2 points which is
very similar to the 46.4 points as calculated above. Aaron wins the trade (except for the fact
that Andrew Luck will be back next year and T.Y. Hilton should perform even
better......)
·
We could use
the trade between Keith and I for Jordy Nelson as another example. I gained Keith's 5th round pick and Jordy
Nelson. In exchange, Keith received
Marshawn Lynch, Jerick McKinnon and my 14th round pick. -5.8 multiplied by a 9
round differential = 52.2 points. Now
obviously Keith won't be keeping Lynch and McKinnon so let's not go into any
further detail and just leave it as a status of "Aaron wins the
trade"......
Conclusions
First of all, don't get
your hopes up that this statistical analysis will be a yearly occurrence. This literally took me all day. Good thing I have a job where there is
absolutely nothing for me to do all day long (Andrew can vouch that we are
pretty much just waiting to be laid off).
Next year I will more than likely have a real job and probably won't be
able to find the time to devout a full 8 hours to this.
I
hope everyone enjoyed this statistical analysis. I found it extremely interesting to analyze
the data and see if the data supported some of the trades that I made this
year. Who knows, maybe this will change
the way all Managers conduct their trades in the future!
Comments
Post a Comment