Last Place Wisdom: Enough with the Pizza, it's time to go back to my first love
A lot has gone on in the 2 weeks since I last wrote a blog post, not the least of it being that the league is now looking entirely different from a standings perspective. Not that long ago, it kind of looked like Clarke and I were running away with the standings,but Clarke has lost 2 games in a row and my team has decided to become absolutely terrible. Andrew's team has actually established itself, while Steve has completed his rebuild after last season. Meanwhile, only 2 games separate 3rd and 11th place, and even Aaron isn't entirely out of the picture after running off 3 straight wins. This is one of the craziest TFLOEG seasons I can remember and I love it, despite the fact that I'm starting to worry about my prospects for this season.
Now, this could all be a bunch of over reacting on my part. We've just come out of the busiest bye-weeks of the year, meaning there could be a lot more upset and surprise potential when ordinarily reliable cornerstones are out of the lineup. I'm not so sure about that however, which is why I've become increasingly desperate in regards to shaking things up. What better way to shake things up than the guaranteed, tried and true response to any fantasy problems; a team name change.
That's right, despite my thoughts earlier in the year about wanting to find a team name and stick with it, I'm turning my back on the Keith-glorious Basterds in the hope that I can start to make it rain burgers.
First, a little backstory. For those of you that aren't aware, the Medicine Hat Tigers and Wendy's have created a promotion where if the Tiger's score in the final 60 seconds of the 3rd period of their home games, every person in attendance gets a free cheeseburger. You might assume I would be pretty excited about the prospect of a free burg', and you'd be right. Despite my love of a freshly grilled, all-beef, never frozen patty; topped with a thick slice of american cheese, crisp lettuce, a ripe tomato, and a tangy dill pickle; sandwiched between a buttery, lightly-toasted bun, I'm ashamed to compare myself with the hero at this past Saturday's Tiger game; who not only loves burg's as much as I do (I can only assume), but who wanted to express his love through a sharpie and some bright orange poster-board. After sitting on this work of art all game long, when the clock hit 00:59, our unnamed hero unfurled his masterpiece for the world, inspire the Tigers to "Make it Rain Burgers" on the 3970 in attendance at the Canalta Centre that evening. For the entire 60 seconds of the 3-3 3rd period, throughout the break, and until Max Gerlach scored with 6 seconds left in overtime, the sign inspired the Tigers, and all of us, with thoughts of what could be. As soon as the game was over, this madman rushed down to the tunnel to shove his sign in the face of the celebrating players and remind them what they were ultimately playing for.
Now, the fact that we never actually got burgers because the score wasn't in the final 60 seconds of the third period didn't get me down (the game being one of the most exciting I've watched in some time helped ease the disappointment). In fact, it gave me great insight; if this display of selflessness and bravery could inspire the Tigers as much as is did, maybe it will work for my fantasy team too. So here's my pledge to you, the members of the TFOEG; if I'm successful in repeating as fantasy champ, I'm going to make it rain so many burgers on the Superbowl party this year that everyone will be wanting to change their team pictures to cheeseburger boners, like John had been rocking until recently.
Mr. Manager of the Week Award
The hot team at the moment belongs to Andrew, who has made up for limited roster moves by making smart ones instead. Sitting at only 10 roster moves (compared to 30 for myself), Andrew has made moves that are winning him games. Most recently, it was costing me a win by outbidding me for Ben Roethlisberger, and getting 30 points out of total afterthought Robert Woods. Andrew has demonstrated this year that there is more than one way to go about your business and to still be successful.
Sorting Out the Trades
Since Stan and Steve broke the seal on November 9th, the league has seen 9 trades made by 9 different teams in the past week. The idea that we need to cut down on the number of teams who make the playoffs in order to establish buyers and sellers doesn't appear to hold up in the face of this evidence. Surprisingly, after completing 10 and 8 trades last year, Clarke and Dawson have actually been some of the quieter teams this season, content to let things play out while the rest of us scramble for positioning.
Full disclosure, I planned on continuing my series on sorting out your team last week, but in the midst of trade discussions involving so many of my players I just didn't feel up for it. I think I didn't want to swing things one way or another, or assert some sort of influence outside of the private discussions. Maybe this was overthinking my own powers of persuasion after my previous call outs, but given the flood of trades over the past week, I think it's safe to say there's more going on than I can control.
I'm going to discuss how these trades can play out based on the archetypes I discussed earlier. I'm going to ignore the ones that I see as primarily relevant only for this year, as they're just more about team need or jockeying for position, and discuss the 4 I can see having long term implications.
Cook for Sammy Watkins - This trade was an absolute steal for Steve. Watkins has been pretty horrible this year, and injuries ruined his last year, but the guy still has talent. More importantly, he's still a 9th round value, making him one of the very few players out there with the capable of joining the Antonio Brown archetype. He's worth taking that shot on, as the upside could be big. It does mean that Steve has too many potential keepers (what a problem), meaning he'll have to let someone like Ajayi or Gronkowski go in the offseason.
Bryant & Thompson for McCoy & Anderson - Stan trading McCoy was going to be part of any rebuild he undertook, so it didn't surprise me to see it happen. The core of this trade is 2 players in the Elliot archetype traded for one another, and with Stan getting the younger of the two players this is probably a good thing for his team going forward, although if I were him I would have looked at finding that great value piece like Steve did in getting Hopkins for Gordon last year, but maybe that type of deal didn't exist. Travis also hasn't given up too much in the future, McCoy should still be a fine keeper for one more year, and the possibility always exists for Travis to trade him next trade deadline if he is not in a position to compete. Thompson in the 6th round is also a potential keeper for Stan, as a kind of solid value, Duke Johnson-esque movie.
Mixon for Ingram - Going by my archetypes, on the surface this looks like a bad deal for Aaron. I placed Ingram in the Brown Archetype, as a RB1 kept at an incredible value (9th round - going back to 2014 Ingram has finished as RB 13, 11, 11, 6(currently)). Mixon, at his best, becomes an Elliot type player as a star with a fair value. Not everything is bad about this deal for Aaron however, as betting on Ingram's future success is no sure thing. With Kamara looking like a star, you have to wonder if the Saints might look for a way to get out from their expensive veteran. Things can change fast for a RB, and while I would have wanted more of a sure-thing for my best asset, I can understand Aaron's thinking (Alternate Universe - Aaron approached Andrew about trading Ingram for Cook)
Nelson & 5th for McKinnon & Lynch - Aaron managed to move his other most valuable asset (McKinnon) in a deal that helped set him up for the future. In my position, moving Nelson was a no-brainer; I'm going for it now and losing the keeper value is worth taking a shot on. He potentially becomes a star and key cornerstone for the Overmitts 2018, although his position as a Brown type player is likely declining due to age and injury concerns. Aaron did good holding out for more than a 3rd round pick for McKinnon, as suggested on the podcast, as the type of player you draft in the 3rd isn't going to be enough to move Aaron from pretender to contender. I'm excited about the possibility of Lynch, and Aaron did fine moving him for a 5th rounder. He could have had Garapollo and his 15th round pocket player value instead (technically a promise to Garapollo after the draft, calm down everyone, we weren't violating the sanctity of the pocket player), but forces convinced Aaron otherwise. Time will tell what the better move might have been.
I expect to see a few more trades in the week leading up to the deadline, especially after the results of Mike, John and Stan's game's this week. When those teams decide if they are out of it or not, I assume Doug Martin, Marvin Jones, Jordan Reed, Demarco Murray, Golden Tate, Chris Thompson, Isaiah Crowell are all names that could be moved in order to improve their teams next year.
On the Next Last Place Wisdom
Now, this could all be a bunch of over reacting on my part. We've just come out of the busiest bye-weeks of the year, meaning there could be a lot more upset and surprise potential when ordinarily reliable cornerstones are out of the lineup. I'm not so sure about that however, which is why I've become increasingly desperate in regards to shaking things up. What better way to shake things up than the guaranteed, tried and true response to any fantasy problems; a team name change.
That's right, despite my thoughts earlier in the year about wanting to find a team name and stick with it, I'm turning my back on the Keith-glorious Basterds in the hope that I can start to make it rain burgers.
First, a little backstory. For those of you that aren't aware, the Medicine Hat Tigers and Wendy's have created a promotion where if the Tiger's score in the final 60 seconds of the 3rd period of their home games, every person in attendance gets a free cheeseburger. You might assume I would be pretty excited about the prospect of a free burg', and you'd be right. Despite my love of a freshly grilled, all-beef, never frozen patty; topped with a thick slice of american cheese, crisp lettuce, a ripe tomato, and a tangy dill pickle; sandwiched between a buttery, lightly-toasted bun, I'm ashamed to compare myself with the hero at this past Saturday's Tiger game; who not only loves burg's as much as I do (I can only assume), but who wanted to express his love through a sharpie and some bright orange poster-board. After sitting on this work of art all game long, when the clock hit 00:59, our unnamed hero unfurled his masterpiece for the world, inspire the Tigers to "Make it Rain Burgers" on the 3970 in attendance at the Canalta Centre that evening. For the entire 60 seconds of the 3-3 3rd period, throughout the break, and until Max Gerlach scored with 6 seconds left in overtime, the sign inspired the Tigers, and all of us, with thoughts of what could be. As soon as the game was over, this madman rushed down to the tunnel to shove his sign in the face of the celebrating players and remind them what they were ultimately playing for.
Now, the fact that we never actually got burgers because the score wasn't in the final 60 seconds of the third period didn't get me down (the game being one of the most exciting I've watched in some time helped ease the disappointment). In fact, it gave me great insight; if this display of selflessness and bravery could inspire the Tigers as much as is did, maybe it will work for my fantasy team too. So here's my pledge to you, the members of the TFOEG; if I'm successful in repeating as fantasy champ, I'm going to make it rain so many burgers on the Superbowl party this year that everyone will be wanting to change their team pictures to cheeseburger boners, like John had been rocking until recently.
 |
| The sign that started it all |
The hot team at the moment belongs to Andrew, who has made up for limited roster moves by making smart ones instead. Sitting at only 10 roster moves (compared to 30 for myself), Andrew has made moves that are winning him games. Most recently, it was costing me a win by outbidding me for Ben Roethlisberger, and getting 30 points out of total afterthought Robert Woods. Andrew has demonstrated this year that there is more than one way to go about your business and to still be successful.
Sorting Out the Trades
Since Stan and Steve broke the seal on November 9th, the league has seen 9 trades made by 9 different teams in the past week. The idea that we need to cut down on the number of teams who make the playoffs in order to establish buyers and sellers doesn't appear to hold up in the face of this evidence. Surprisingly, after completing 10 and 8 trades last year, Clarke and Dawson have actually been some of the quieter teams this season, content to let things play out while the rest of us scramble for positioning.
Full disclosure, I planned on continuing my series on sorting out your team last week, but in the midst of trade discussions involving so many of my players I just didn't feel up for it. I think I didn't want to swing things one way or another, or assert some sort of influence outside of the private discussions. Maybe this was overthinking my own powers of persuasion after my previous call outs, but given the flood of trades over the past week, I think it's safe to say there's more going on than I can control.
I'm going to discuss how these trades can play out based on the archetypes I discussed earlier. I'm going to ignore the ones that I see as primarily relevant only for this year, as they're just more about team need or jockeying for position, and discuss the 4 I can see having long term implications.
Cook for Sammy Watkins - This trade was an absolute steal for Steve. Watkins has been pretty horrible this year, and injuries ruined his last year, but the guy still has talent. More importantly, he's still a 9th round value, making him one of the very few players out there with the capable of joining the Antonio Brown archetype. He's worth taking that shot on, as the upside could be big. It does mean that Steve has too many potential keepers (what a problem), meaning he'll have to let someone like Ajayi or Gronkowski go in the offseason.
Bryant & Thompson for McCoy & Anderson - Stan trading McCoy was going to be part of any rebuild he undertook, so it didn't surprise me to see it happen. The core of this trade is 2 players in the Elliot archetype traded for one another, and with Stan getting the younger of the two players this is probably a good thing for his team going forward, although if I were him I would have looked at finding that great value piece like Steve did in getting Hopkins for Gordon last year, but maybe that type of deal didn't exist. Travis also hasn't given up too much in the future, McCoy should still be a fine keeper for one more year, and the possibility always exists for Travis to trade him next trade deadline if he is not in a position to compete. Thompson in the 6th round is also a potential keeper for Stan, as a kind of solid value, Duke Johnson-esque movie.
Mixon for Ingram - Going by my archetypes, on the surface this looks like a bad deal for Aaron. I placed Ingram in the Brown Archetype, as a RB1 kept at an incredible value (9th round - going back to 2014 Ingram has finished as RB 13, 11, 11, 6(currently)). Mixon, at his best, becomes an Elliot type player as a star with a fair value. Not everything is bad about this deal for Aaron however, as betting on Ingram's future success is no sure thing. With Kamara looking like a star, you have to wonder if the Saints might look for a way to get out from their expensive veteran. Things can change fast for a RB, and while I would have wanted more of a sure-thing for my best asset, I can understand Aaron's thinking (Alternate Universe - Aaron approached Andrew about trading Ingram for Cook)
Nelson & 5th for McKinnon & Lynch - Aaron managed to move his other most valuable asset (McKinnon) in a deal that helped set him up for the future. In my position, moving Nelson was a no-brainer; I'm going for it now and losing the keeper value is worth taking a shot on. He potentially becomes a star and key cornerstone for the Overmitts 2018, although his position as a Brown type player is likely declining due to age and injury concerns. Aaron did good holding out for more than a 3rd round pick for McKinnon, as suggested on the podcast, as the type of player you draft in the 3rd isn't going to be enough to move Aaron from pretender to contender. I'm excited about the possibility of Lynch, and Aaron did fine moving him for a 5th rounder. He could have had Garapollo and his 15th round pocket player value instead (technically a promise to Garapollo after the draft, calm down everyone, we weren't violating the sanctity of the pocket player), but forces convinced Aaron otherwise. Time will tell what the better move might have been.
I expect to see a few more trades in the week leading up to the deadline, especially after the results of Mike, John and Stan's game's this week. When those teams decide if they are out of it or not, I assume Doug Martin, Marvin Jones, Jordan Reed, Demarco Murray, Golden Tate, Chris Thompson, Isaiah Crowell are all names that could be moved in order to improve their teams next year.
On the Next Last Place Wisdom
- I circle back to the inspiration I received listening to the blog 2 weeks ago and spend 2500 words discussing why no one can tell good stories anymore, why modern art is terrible and why modern architecture is soul killing and depression inducing.
- I double down on the power of burgers after losing 4 straight, and consider whether it's too late in the season to become a seller.
- I discuss some crazy what-ifs and fantasy trade proposals that would have far reaching implications for the playoffs and the future of the TFLOEG.
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