Last Place Wisdom: An Archetypal Kind of Post
Clarke and I haven't played each other since the finals last year. Thanks to some improbably come from behind victories on Monday, we're both tied on top of the standings (although NFL.com considers me the true best in the league thanks to my advantage in Coach Points (which I mainly have due to the fact I don't have a deep bench and I'm not left with the question of who to start each week (basically I'm saying it's a flawed metric))). I manage to get Clarke in a week where his best player in on a bye, however he still has an overall more formidable roster. I think my players have better matchups, but we have players on the same teams that will be going up against each other (Ertz vs Agholor, Allen vs Gordon). In short I'm looking forward to the matchup greatly, which likely means it ends up in a blowout and removes what otherwise would be some great drama.
Thoughts on league wide happenings over the past week:
Fantasy Football Archetypes
The Elliots - this is probably the most straight forward to understand. These are the players that everyone wants for their keepers, and who consistently get kept in the first 3-4 rounds. Typically, these players are either long time stars, or else they get drafted in the first 2 rounds as rookie running backs going to good situations. These players are the cornerstones of many competitive teams, and the way to get value out of them is to stack as many as you can so they're kept at a better price. John has taken great advantage of this for example, with AJ Green being kept as a 4th rounder when he otherwise has 1st round value.
Notable players: Fournette, Gurley, Elliott, Jones, Bryant, McCoy, Gordon, Green, Murray, Gronkowski, Cook, Hunt, Rodgers, Robinson
The Demariyus' - these are the guys who everyone wants to have on their teams, but who you don't want to make one of your keepers if you can at all help it. They typically get drafted in the first 2-3 rounds as well, but because they aren't tops at their position you always feel like you can get them or someone like them if you let them go at the end of the year. Demariyus Thomas is the poster child for this archetype of player, and if you look at previous drafts a lot of these players are the same between 2016 and 2017. They can help make up a strong team, but by themselves they won't put a team over the top. A lot of the very best TEs and QBs fall into this category ast well.
Notable Players: Thomas, Allen, Cooper, Crabtree, Martin, Tate, Fitzgerald, Landry, Brees, Reed, Kelce, Wilson, Benjamin (Powell gets drafted like this type of player, but I don't think he should belong here)
Sometimes players from this archetype might end up being a keeper, they're fair value in the 3rd and 4th round and you don't have anyone better. That's fine, however I think limiting the number of keepers you have like this is the key to moving to the fantasy upper classes.
The Gores - nobody really wants to draft these guys, but you do it every year because they can help you win. Unlike the Demariyus', these guys have a much higher chance to bone you due to age or team related decline, but in our league outside of the first 3 rounds these are the types of established players you are limited to. I've focused heavily on these players the past few years, to mixed success, but I think if you want to win now you could do a lot worse than to load up on these guys.
Notable Players: Gore, Stewart, Marshall, Garcon, Bernard, Gillislee, Decker, Maclin, Blount, Powell.
The Sexy Ameer Abdullahs - the hot new rookies who every year get over valued and taken over better established players. Sometimes these players hit right away and join the ranks of the Elliots; Hunt, Cook, Fournette all did this year. Sometimes at best they join the lower end of the Demariyus', guys you can't see yourself keeping beyond one year even if they have some upside (think Melvin Gordon his rookie year). Rookies take time to prove themselves, and taking any rookie in the first 5 rounds is a crap shoot. . The upside is there, but I caution against it if you're looking to win now or find great value.
Notable Players (from 2017): Mixon and Corey Davis are guys still figuring out where they will end up, at this point it's tough to say they have earned their keep. From this draft, I'd put Zay Jones there in the 7th. He was the 7th rookie kept, and probably picked 2 rounds too early. In previous years Derrick Henry has gone here, as well as Treadwell, Shepard, DeAndre Washington, Agholor, Yeldon.
The Regular Rookie - these guys show some promise, but are taken at a more realistic draft position. In our league that's typically in rounds 8 or later. The value of taking rookies here is that even if they have a standard rookie season, you feel ok about keeping them going forward. Sometimes they hit it big, and then you get a player from the next category, but even if you don't the downside isn't that bad.
Notable Players (from 2017): Kupp, Golladay, Perine, Mack, Mike Williams, Cohen, Kamara, Foreman.
The Browns (non Cleveland variety) - I may be biased, but I think this is the key to fantasy success in a keeper league; star players kept at a value far lower than where you would normally get them. I have 2 championships on the back of Antonio Brown (1 on Devonta Freeman), and teams should do everything they can to acquire and hold on to players that fall into this category as the payoff is huge. Getting these players is tough, as it requires some prognostication, trading wisdom, and a big pile of luck. They also fall into 2 sub categories, your incredible value guys like ODB or David Johnson, or more moderate value like Alshon Jeffery or Tyreek Hill.
Notable Players: Brown, Freeman, Johnson, Nelson, Evans, Thomas, Hyde, Ingram, Howard. Hopkins, Beckham, Baldwin, Hill, Cooks, Bell, Miller, Brady
The Proletariat - basically all of the QBs, TEs and non-rookie position players you take round 9 or later. They most likely make up your bench, and each guy taken is a total crapshoot or is not all that different from one another. Unlike the Gores they maybe haven't been stars in the past, and unlike the rookies you aren't as excited about their potential. Most QBs and TEs fall into this category in my opinion, because outside of the top of the bunch, they're mostly interchangeable. One sub-archetype are the former highly thought rookies who fall into here by default, like Sterling Shepard or Nelson Agholor, but who are still young enough to fight their way out. There are other sub-archetypes, such as your flyers, handcuffs, etc, but I'm not going to discuss them because of how long this post is already.
So those archetypes basically describe how I view every player in the league when it comes to assessing their draft value, trade value, and value to their respective teams. I'm not going to touch on what it all means on this post, but now that we share the same language it will be helpful for me to discuss strategy and how owners can apply it to their teams.
Papa John's Pizza Archetypal Adjournment of the Week
This heavy of a post requires a musical interlude in my opinion, and what better way to stick to the theme than with a Thrice classic that touches on a lot of archetypal themes and ideas. Over the summer, I was thinking of making Thrice my regular musical feature, in the sense that early 00's emo and POD have been in the past, and maybe I'll explore that some more. This song also has the benefit of fitting in slightly with the mini-swoon Travis is going through right now.
Mr. Manager of the Week Award
My Eagles stole me a win this week, in a matchup that I really should have lost. It was so crazy that Stan was sending me emails late Monday night congratulating me on the victory. I'm not going to toot my own horn though, as I really didn't have any other options for who I played this week, and for that reason I'm doing the unsurprising thing and giving the award to Shayne for picking up Stills at the last minute. Those are the types of smart and brave moves that I like to use this space to highlight, and it goes to show the importance of otherwise minor roster decisions.
On the Next Last Place Wisdom
Thoughts on league wide happenings over the past week:
- Steve and I made a trade, where I finally end up with a player I value and respect greatly in Frank Gore. I was afraid I wouldn't be able to move one of my QBs, as most teams in the league are fairly set at the position, however if I dropped Stafford I'm sure he would have been picked up. With Mariota struggling, Stafford should give Steve a sense of consistency he's been lacking. Steve has cemented himself as perhaps the 4th best team in the league right now, so I may be helping an eventual playoff rival, however overall I think it was a good trade for both of us.
- Last week's schedule shows the downside of head to head matchups. Top 4 teams in scoring all played each other, which means rather than create greater separation, every continues to be stuck with records close to one another. Spots 4-10 are super tight, which should make for an exciting latter half of the season.
So in my efforts to share and explain what makes for properly ordered fantasy teams, it's worth looking at players through the lense of an archetypical system. For those who aren't aware, archetypes are constantly recurring ideas, patterns, symbols, or models that exist at a lower or more base level, and can be helpful when it comes to explaining why things are the way they are. Personally I have some questions about how useful they are in all senses, but I can recognize their value and the deep insight-fullness that comes along with them.
When I approach the draft, or when I try to assign rankings or values to players or teams, I've noticed players typically fall into several archetypes. This is my attempt to map some sense of meaning onto these archetypes; you might disagree with my divisions, or disagree with where I have assigned players, and that's perfectly acceptable. Once the games are actually being played none of these thoughts truly matter to them anymore, and players likely switch which archetype they belong to far sooner than we realize it.
While I make some assertions about which archetypes and combinations will lead to fantasy success, I might just be letting my own biases cloud my analysis. Good players exist in all of the archetypes, and while success will likely shift players from one to another in our thought, all that matters is scoring more points than your opponent each week.
To cut off one other possible objection, "Isn't this just a complicated way of looking at player rankings?", I answer; yes, that's actually just what it is. But speaking words about the rankings, and why they are how they are can provide a great deal of value and context that is otherwise missing from what is a straightforward process. I'm open to hearing thoughts on if I've missed archetyped a player in your minds, or if I'm missing entire categories I should be thinking about.
The Elliots - this is probably the most straight forward to understand. These are the players that everyone wants for their keepers, and who consistently get kept in the first 3-4 rounds. Typically, these players are either long time stars, or else they get drafted in the first 2 rounds as rookie running backs going to good situations. These players are the cornerstones of many competitive teams, and the way to get value out of them is to stack as many as you can so they're kept at a better price. John has taken great advantage of this for example, with AJ Green being kept as a 4th rounder when he otherwise has 1st round value.
Notable players: Fournette, Gurley, Elliott, Jones, Bryant, McCoy, Gordon, Green, Murray, Gronkowski, Cook, Hunt, Rodgers, Robinson
The Demariyus' - these are the guys who everyone wants to have on their teams, but who you don't want to make one of your keepers if you can at all help it. They typically get drafted in the first 2-3 rounds as well, but because they aren't tops at their position you always feel like you can get them or someone like them if you let them go at the end of the year. Demariyus Thomas is the poster child for this archetype of player, and if you look at previous drafts a lot of these players are the same between 2016 and 2017. They can help make up a strong team, but by themselves they won't put a team over the top. A lot of the very best TEs and QBs fall into this category ast well.
Notable Players: Thomas, Allen, Cooper, Crabtree, Martin, Tate, Fitzgerald, Landry, Brees, Reed, Kelce, Wilson, Benjamin (Powell gets drafted like this type of player, but I don't think he should belong here)
Sometimes players from this archetype might end up being a keeper, they're fair value in the 3rd and 4th round and you don't have anyone better. That's fine, however I think limiting the number of keepers you have like this is the key to moving to the fantasy upper classes.
The Gores - nobody really wants to draft these guys, but you do it every year because they can help you win. Unlike the Demariyus', these guys have a much higher chance to bone you due to age or team related decline, but in our league outside of the first 3 rounds these are the types of established players you are limited to. I've focused heavily on these players the past few years, to mixed success, but I think if you want to win now you could do a lot worse than to load up on these guys.
Notable Players: Gore, Stewart, Marshall, Garcon, Bernard, Gillislee, Decker, Maclin, Blount, Powell.
The Sexy Ameer Abdullahs - the hot new rookies who every year get over valued and taken over better established players. Sometimes these players hit right away and join the ranks of the Elliots; Hunt, Cook, Fournette all did this year. Sometimes at best they join the lower end of the Demariyus', guys you can't see yourself keeping beyond one year even if they have some upside (think Melvin Gordon his rookie year). Rookies take time to prove themselves, and taking any rookie in the first 5 rounds is a crap shoot. . The upside is there, but I caution against it if you're looking to win now or find great value.
Notable Players (from 2017): Mixon and Corey Davis are guys still figuring out where they will end up, at this point it's tough to say they have earned their keep. From this draft, I'd put Zay Jones there in the 7th. He was the 7th rookie kept, and probably picked 2 rounds too early. In previous years Derrick Henry has gone here, as well as Treadwell, Shepard, DeAndre Washington, Agholor, Yeldon.
The Regular Rookie - these guys show some promise, but are taken at a more realistic draft position. In our league that's typically in rounds 8 or later. The value of taking rookies here is that even if they have a standard rookie season, you feel ok about keeping them going forward. Sometimes they hit it big, and then you get a player from the next category, but even if you don't the downside isn't that bad.
Notable Players (from 2017): Kupp, Golladay, Perine, Mack, Mike Williams, Cohen, Kamara, Foreman.
The Browns (non Cleveland variety) - I may be biased, but I think this is the key to fantasy success in a keeper league; star players kept at a value far lower than where you would normally get them. I have 2 championships on the back of Antonio Brown (1 on Devonta Freeman), and teams should do everything they can to acquire and hold on to players that fall into this category as the payoff is huge. Getting these players is tough, as it requires some prognostication, trading wisdom, and a big pile of luck. They also fall into 2 sub categories, your incredible value guys like ODB or David Johnson, or more moderate value like Alshon Jeffery or Tyreek Hill.
Notable Players: Brown, Freeman, Johnson, Nelson, Evans, Thomas, Hyde, Ingram, Howard. Hopkins, Beckham, Baldwin, Hill, Cooks, Bell, Miller, Brady
The Proletariat - basically all of the QBs, TEs and non-rookie position players you take round 9 or later. They most likely make up your bench, and each guy taken is a total crapshoot or is not all that different from one another. Unlike the Gores they maybe haven't been stars in the past, and unlike the rookies you aren't as excited about their potential. Most QBs and TEs fall into this category in my opinion, because outside of the top of the bunch, they're mostly interchangeable. One sub-archetype are the former highly thought rookies who fall into here by default, like Sterling Shepard or Nelson Agholor, but who are still young enough to fight their way out. There are other sub-archetypes, such as your flyers, handcuffs, etc, but I'm not going to discuss them because of how long this post is already.
So those archetypes basically describe how I view every player in the league when it comes to assessing their draft value, trade value, and value to their respective teams. I'm not going to touch on what it all means on this post, but now that we share the same language it will be helpful for me to discuss strategy and how owners can apply it to their teams.
Papa John's Pizza Archetypal Adjournment of the Week
This heavy of a post requires a musical interlude in my opinion, and what better way to stick to the theme than with a Thrice classic that touches on a lot of archetypal themes and ideas. Over the summer, I was thinking of making Thrice my regular musical feature, in the sense that early 00's emo and POD have been in the past, and maybe I'll explore that some more. This song also has the benefit of fitting in slightly with the mini-swoon Travis is going through right now.
Mr. Manager of the Week Award
My Eagles stole me a win this week, in a matchup that I really should have lost. It was so crazy that Stan was sending me emails late Monday night congratulating me on the victory. I'm not going to toot my own horn though, as I really didn't have any other options for who I played this week, and for that reason I'm doing the unsurprising thing and giving the award to Shayne for picking up Stills at the last minute. Those are the types of smart and brave moves that I like to use this space to highlight, and it goes to show the importance of otherwise minor roster decisions.
On the Next Last Place Wisdom
- We dive deep into the fantasy underworld to save our fathers (and seasons)
- Clarke or I finally determine which of us is the team to beat going into the playoffs, only for each of us to lose before we get to face off again.
- I rethink my choices of realizing how many words I just devoted to a fantasy football article read by a dozen people.
Absolutely brilliant Keith! I'm loving where these posts have been headed this season.
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