Last Place Wisdom: Regularly Scheduled Post Draft Musings
It's become a yearly tradition that I write-up some thoughts immediately following the best day of the season. I always enjoy sticking around for a while after the draft and shooting the breeze, and this blog post has become a regular extension of that. People should certainly take it all with an even larger grain of thought than most of what I say. Looking at my thoughts from last year's draft roundup, only 3 of my 12+ Mr. Manager Picks of the Draft turned out to not be absolutely horrible (Crowell, Fitzgerald and Elliot), so that's telling you something about my ability to judge good value sleepers and players.
One thing I did notice from last year is that I picked a lot of rookies for my picks of the draft, and they pretty much universally disappointed. Coleman, Sharpe (remember when this guy was an exciting player? It was just a year ago), Henry, Perkins, Doctson and Booker were all guys I thought were great picks last year and it turned out they weren't. Expecting successful fantasy seasons from highly regarded rookies is a total crapshoot, and I'm happier than ever that I took fewer of them.
Steve - I like the start of Steve's draft; taking solid reliable veterans like Gore and Riddick, along with high upside players like Fournette and Parker as well as the undeniable best player available in Amari Cooper. Going contrary to my thoughts on rookies, Steve selected 4 of them. Maybe some of them hit this year, but it's quite possible Steve's bench is depleted by rookies who aren't player.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Mike Wallace is the unsexy pick that could pay off big if Parker or his rookies do nothing. Frank Gore is my runner up, since he's Mr. Consistent and I still believe in him this year.
Mike - Mike had an interesting draft to me, and I'm not completely sure how to think of it. Being able to get the Tampa Bay RB was a good move, as was Emmanuel Sanders. I don't like Bilal Powell this year (looking back, I hated him last year too. I just don't like what he offers where he gets drafted), but that's more of a personal thing and I can understand why Mike took him where he did. I also like that rather than chase the mediocre WRs and RBs, Mike took a shot at making QB and TE and strong point for him with Brees and Reed.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - If I didn't take Marshall with my first, I would have taken Tyrell Williams with my 2nd pick instead of Stewart. Other than Clarke, I think Mike has the deepest group of receivers in the league now.
Travis - Travis didn't have a lot of high picks, and then he used his first pick on Gio Bernard. To be completely honest, my reaction was pretty much the same as Mike's here, as I don't think he will get a lot of playing time and I'm not sure what Travis sees in him. Luck scares me as a pick because of his injury, but if he doesn't miss too much time Travis might have gotten a steal here. He has some decent WR depth, but Bernard as his 3rd RB is tough for me to overlook.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Probably Jeremy Maclin where he took him. Looking at the draft board, I probably should have taken Maclin instead of Prosise who I took one spot earlier, but as much as I preach against it I fell for the sexy upside rather than the reliable veteran. It'll be something for me to watch all season.
Brett - Couldn't really be sure how Brett would react in his first draft, and I think he acquitted himself well. Can't tell much of a tendency or plan, other than taking Vikings when available to him, but he's put together a solid if unspectacular roster. I think he should be competitive, although his RB position is a little shallow with only 3 real options there.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I was hoping Adam Thielen would fall to me, but he went 4 spots ahead of where I could get him. I really like this pick by Brett, and while I think he reached on Hogan a bit it gives him some interesting decisions at WR.
Andrew - This is night and day from what I thought about Andrew's draft last year, as I really like what he did. Andrew stayed away from the flashy rookies (outside of Cook, and Andrew managed to limit the downside of him by getting Murray as well), and took players who have demonstrated proved fantasy success in the past. If Lacy or Peterson regain any of their former glory (they were 2 guys I had targetted), Andrew could surprise some people this year.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Andrew outlasted me by 1 round to become the last team to take their starting QB when he selected Phillip Rivers. This was a solid move on his part, and it mean's Andrew's team has more depth than it has in the past.
Dawson By now we should all know better than to ever underestimate oh that's nasty coming out of the draft. Dawson is of the old school, where he takes both a backup QB and backup TE, but always manages to put together a solid team. I look at who he took and where he took them, and I cannot come up with what I think is a bad pick or a reach of any sort. He's perhaps lacking little of the high upside potential, and he has some injury concerns at WR, but I'm not ready to predict this is the year that Dawson struggles.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Crabtree is the perfect player to use a 2nd round pick on in our format, and McFadden probably shouldn't have fallen to Dawson when he did. He's a high upside RB and I can see him getting Dawson off to a hot start, which is something Dawson has done many times in the past.
Shayne - Shayne nailed his first 3 picks, taking reliable players in Decker, Fitzgerald and Garcon, and this should set him up to be consistently good again this year. I think he made a mistake not reaching for McFadden a little higher than he went, and losing that security to go chasing a rookie in Kenny Golladay (who I love, btw) is about the only criticism I can make of his draft at this point.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - How did James White fall to Shayne in the 12th round? If there's one pick we all end up regretting this year, that could be it.
Aaron - Aaron is a team on the upswing. I had him ranked last before last year's draft, moved him up my rankings following that, and then he even surpassed that last season, ending in a solid 5th place. It will be interesting to watch if Aaron can take the next step into becoming one of the league's consistent contenders, or remains in the middle class.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I like that he took Lynch so that Clarke couldn't pick him, however his pick of the draft will end up being Robbie Anderson or Joe Williams. I think Williams has the best chance of becoming the player in the last 2 rounds who makes an impact this season.
John - John spent the first half of the draft not doing a lot, so he's understandably relying more on his keepers than anyone else. John took a lot of guys who are totally unsurprising John picks; Alvin Kamara, Josh Brown, Rex Burkhead, and these are the players I'll be watching to determine how success John ends up being this year.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Maybe this is hedging, and if I put every Patriots RB on this list one of them will hit and I'll look good, but I like him taking Burkhead where he got him.
Stan - Just like Dawson, Stan is someone that you can never over estimate, as his team always seems to turn out well. I hate his TEs, as Bennett and Cook are basically the poster children for what makes the position frustrating, but the rest of his draft are the types of solid, safe picks that I think lead to long term success.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Kevin White is the one guy who potentially has more boom or bust potential than anyone in the league this year. If he hits, he's a guy who could win the league for Stan, and is probably someone I should have considered with Maclin instead of Prosise.
Clarke - I don't even know what to write about Clarke's draft. With 8 picks in the first 5 rounds, there is no question Clarke was able to build an incredibly strong team for himself. The only upside for the rest of us is that he is somewhat relying on 2 totally unproven rookie RBs to help solidify his team, but with the level of the 4 WRs he'll be able to play each week, how his RBs play might not matter.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I don't think it's Mack, because even though he has upside I don't think Gore loses his job. In that case, Woodhead was a safe pick that could help Clarke out big time if his rookies struggle.
Keith - I really like what I was able to accomplish this draft. I was planning on having to choose 1 of a group of veteran players including Marshall or Stewart with my first pick, and I managed to get them both. The way the draft fell, I went a lot heavier on RB than I was planning, which I'm never going to complain about as I love having options available at that position especially. Waiting on QB seems to have paid off once again, as I'm perfectly happy to play Stafford once again this year if it allows me more of a chance at RBs.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I have a great deal of excitement about Prosise and Carson Wentz this year; I think if Prosise can stay healthy he could truly become a special talent and I just have a gut feeling that Wentz will take a big step forward and finish the year as a top 12 QB option (which is he only reason I drafted a backup QB). But that said, I think the most valuable pick I made was Jordan Matthews, as he's the kind of depth player who I think is super important, and I think probably should have been taken a few rounds earlier.
And there you have it. Clarke deserves the ridicule of wearing the oven mitts at the draft this year, which I'm sure he can live with considering there will not be much ridicule elsewhere directed at his team this year. (Shoutout to Mike and maybe Aaron for also pulling an over mitts, apologies if I missed or slandered anyone incorrectly).
I'm not going to do a 1-12 ranking this year, but I will break it down into how I see the tiers shaking out this early. I'm going to make a few bold calls
Tier 1 - the favourite
Clarke - he'll have a target on his back all season long. As the Champ, I can live with this attention going elsewhere
Tier 2 - the contenders
These are the teams I see nipping at Clarke's heels all season long
Keith
Shayne
Stan
Tier 3 - the middle class
Every year there seems to be a great unwashed mass of teams fighting for playoff positioning. I'm going to break these down into
The Upper Middle Class
Dawson
Andrew
The Lower Middle Class
John
Mike
Aaron
Brett
Steve
Tier 4 - the struggler
Travis
Travis is the only team I'm placing here for the moment. There's just too much uncertainty around Luck and Bernard for me to move him into the middle class at this point. There's certainly a chance Travis makes the step into the middle class this season, at which point according to my tier list will basically mean the TFLOEG has become the Teddy Clugston of fighting fantasy homelessness, with everyone in a position to compete with 1 or 2 things going right.
On the Next Last Place Wisdom
One thing I did notice from last year is that I picked a lot of rookies for my picks of the draft, and they pretty much universally disappointed. Coleman, Sharpe (remember when this guy was an exciting player? It was just a year ago), Henry, Perkins, Doctson and Booker were all guys I thought were great picks last year and it turned out they weren't. Expecting successful fantasy seasons from highly regarded rookies is a total crapshoot, and I'm happier than ever that I took fewer of them.
Steve - I like the start of Steve's draft; taking solid reliable veterans like Gore and Riddick, along with high upside players like Fournette and Parker as well as the undeniable best player available in Amari Cooper. Going contrary to my thoughts on rookies, Steve selected 4 of them. Maybe some of them hit this year, but it's quite possible Steve's bench is depleted by rookies who aren't player.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Mike Wallace is the unsexy pick that could pay off big if Parker or his rookies do nothing. Frank Gore is my runner up, since he's Mr. Consistent and I still believe in him this year.
Mike - Mike had an interesting draft to me, and I'm not completely sure how to think of it. Being able to get the Tampa Bay RB was a good move, as was Emmanuel Sanders. I don't like Bilal Powell this year (looking back, I hated him last year too. I just don't like what he offers where he gets drafted), but that's more of a personal thing and I can understand why Mike took him where he did. I also like that rather than chase the mediocre WRs and RBs, Mike took a shot at making QB and TE and strong point for him with Brees and Reed.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - If I didn't take Marshall with my first, I would have taken Tyrell Williams with my 2nd pick instead of Stewart. Other than Clarke, I think Mike has the deepest group of receivers in the league now.
Travis - Travis didn't have a lot of high picks, and then he used his first pick on Gio Bernard. To be completely honest, my reaction was pretty much the same as Mike's here, as I don't think he will get a lot of playing time and I'm not sure what Travis sees in him. Luck scares me as a pick because of his injury, but if he doesn't miss too much time Travis might have gotten a steal here. He has some decent WR depth, but Bernard as his 3rd RB is tough for me to overlook.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Probably Jeremy Maclin where he took him. Looking at the draft board, I probably should have taken Maclin instead of Prosise who I took one spot earlier, but as much as I preach against it I fell for the sexy upside rather than the reliable veteran. It'll be something for me to watch all season.
Brett - Couldn't really be sure how Brett would react in his first draft, and I think he acquitted himself well. Can't tell much of a tendency or plan, other than taking Vikings when available to him, but he's put together a solid if unspectacular roster. I think he should be competitive, although his RB position is a little shallow with only 3 real options there.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I was hoping Adam Thielen would fall to me, but he went 4 spots ahead of where I could get him. I really like this pick by Brett, and while I think he reached on Hogan a bit it gives him some interesting decisions at WR.
Andrew - This is night and day from what I thought about Andrew's draft last year, as I really like what he did. Andrew stayed away from the flashy rookies (outside of Cook, and Andrew managed to limit the downside of him by getting Murray as well), and took players who have demonstrated proved fantasy success in the past. If Lacy or Peterson regain any of their former glory (they were 2 guys I had targetted), Andrew could surprise some people this year.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Andrew outlasted me by 1 round to become the last team to take their starting QB when he selected Phillip Rivers. This was a solid move on his part, and it mean's Andrew's team has more depth than it has in the past.
Dawson By now we should all know better than to ever underestimate oh that's nasty coming out of the draft. Dawson is of the old school, where he takes both a backup QB and backup TE, but always manages to put together a solid team. I look at who he took and where he took them, and I cannot come up with what I think is a bad pick or a reach of any sort. He's perhaps lacking little of the high upside potential, and he has some injury concerns at WR, but I'm not ready to predict this is the year that Dawson struggles.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Crabtree is the perfect player to use a 2nd round pick on in our format, and McFadden probably shouldn't have fallen to Dawson when he did. He's a high upside RB and I can see him getting Dawson off to a hot start, which is something Dawson has done many times in the past.
Shayne - Shayne nailed his first 3 picks, taking reliable players in Decker, Fitzgerald and Garcon, and this should set him up to be consistently good again this year. I think he made a mistake not reaching for McFadden a little higher than he went, and losing that security to go chasing a rookie in Kenny Golladay (who I love, btw) is about the only criticism I can make of his draft at this point.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - How did James White fall to Shayne in the 12th round? If there's one pick we all end up regretting this year, that could be it.
Aaron - Aaron is a team on the upswing. I had him ranked last before last year's draft, moved him up my rankings following that, and then he even surpassed that last season, ending in a solid 5th place. It will be interesting to watch if Aaron can take the next step into becoming one of the league's consistent contenders, or remains in the middle class.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I like that he took Lynch so that Clarke couldn't pick him, however his pick of the draft will end up being Robbie Anderson or Joe Williams. I think Williams has the best chance of becoming the player in the last 2 rounds who makes an impact this season.
John - John spent the first half of the draft not doing a lot, so he's understandably relying more on his keepers than anyone else. John took a lot of guys who are totally unsurprising John picks; Alvin Kamara, Josh Brown, Rex Burkhead, and these are the players I'll be watching to determine how success John ends up being this year.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Maybe this is hedging, and if I put every Patriots RB on this list one of them will hit and I'll look good, but I like him taking Burkhead where he got him.
Stan - Just like Dawson, Stan is someone that you can never over estimate, as his team always seems to turn out well. I hate his TEs, as Bennett and Cook are basically the poster children for what makes the position frustrating, but the rest of his draft are the types of solid, safe picks that I think lead to long term success.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - Kevin White is the one guy who potentially has more boom or bust potential than anyone in the league this year. If he hits, he's a guy who could win the league for Stan, and is probably someone I should have considered with Maclin instead of Prosise.
Clarke - I don't even know what to write about Clarke's draft. With 8 picks in the first 5 rounds, there is no question Clarke was able to build an incredibly strong team for himself. The only upside for the rest of us is that he is somewhat relying on 2 totally unproven rookie RBs to help solidify his team, but with the level of the 4 WRs he'll be able to play each week, how his RBs play might not matter.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I don't think it's Mack, because even though he has upside I don't think Gore loses his job. In that case, Woodhead was a safe pick that could help Clarke out big time if his rookies struggle.
Keith - I really like what I was able to accomplish this draft. I was planning on having to choose 1 of a group of veteran players including Marshall or Stewart with my first pick, and I managed to get them both. The way the draft fell, I went a lot heavier on RB than I was planning, which I'm never going to complain about as I love having options available at that position especially. Waiting on QB seems to have paid off once again, as I'm perfectly happy to play Stafford once again this year if it allows me more of a chance at RBs.
Mr. Manager Pick of the Draft - I have a great deal of excitement about Prosise and Carson Wentz this year; I think if Prosise can stay healthy he could truly become a special talent and I just have a gut feeling that Wentz will take a big step forward and finish the year as a top 12 QB option (which is he only reason I drafted a backup QB). But that said, I think the most valuable pick I made was Jordan Matthews, as he's the kind of depth player who I think is super important, and I think probably should have been taken a few rounds earlier.
And there you have it. Clarke deserves the ridicule of wearing the oven mitts at the draft this year, which I'm sure he can live with considering there will not be much ridicule elsewhere directed at his team this year. (Shoutout to Mike and maybe Aaron for also pulling an over mitts, apologies if I missed or slandered anyone incorrectly).
I'm not going to do a 1-12 ranking this year, but I will break it down into how I see the tiers shaking out this early. I'm going to make a few bold calls
Tier 1 - the favourite
Clarke - he'll have a target on his back all season long. As the Champ, I can live with this attention going elsewhere
Tier 2 - the contenders
These are the teams I see nipping at Clarke's heels all season long
Keith
Shayne
Stan
Tier 3 - the middle class
Every year there seems to be a great unwashed mass of teams fighting for playoff positioning. I'm going to break these down into
The Upper Middle Class
Dawson
Andrew
The Lower Middle Class
John
Mike
Aaron
Brett
Steve
Tier 4 - the struggler
Travis
Travis is the only team I'm placing here for the moment. There's just too much uncertainty around Luck and Bernard for me to move him into the middle class at this point. There's certainly a chance Travis makes the step into the middle class this season, at which point according to my tier list will basically mean the TFLOEG has become the Teddy Clugston of fighting fantasy homelessness, with everyone in a position to compete with 1 or 2 things going right.
On the Next Last Place Wisdom
- We finally get to discuss real football.
- It quickly becomes apparent that I look like a fool for predicting Andrew's rise to the upper classes and John's falling out of favour.
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