Last Place Wisdom: Things That Wouldn't Surprise Me in Current Year
The 2016 Fantasy Season hasn't even officially started yet, but already there is talk about the 2017 season, culminating in a trade for 2017 draft picks. While I'm not going to go into too much depth about the moves that were made, I'm bringing it up just to say again how much I love this league, and the level of seriousness and competitiveness that members are bringing to the TFLOEG. I love how much history the league has developed in it's 7 years of existence, as it really doesn't feel like it was 7 years ago now that we we're meeting at Houston Pizza to draft a bunch of players we had never watched before in our life.
So on the talk of league history, last year due to a written tic that I noticed in myself, "That wouldn't surprise me" become a regular part of the blog and I'm wanting to continue it this year. I make no claims of being successful in my predictive power; I typically try and avoid predictions unless I really feel strongly about something since it is far easier to be wrong (some of you may remember my highschool English assignment on why the Cleveland Indians would win the World Series, only to see them lose in the ALDS (I should have known better than to ever trust Cleveland for anything)). Fantasy Football, just like my other love of politics, is unpredictable and I get asked to make political predictions all the time; usually I'm very guarded and hesitant to answer. For at least this one week it's time to all out in saying what wouldn't surprise me, so take it with a grain of salt and let's get down to business.
To get this out of the way, it wouldn't surprise me to see Donald Trump win the US Election. Polls and common wisdom have been saying this is Hilary's election to lose for a long time, but for a variety of reasons this is being overstated. Time to get aboard the Trump train and look forward to seeing that big beautiful wall going up; forget about the Trump is Hitler comparisons, we're all Hitler at one point or another so might as well embrace it.
Now to the football.
Clarke: It wouldn't surprise me if Lamar Miller ultimately disappoints a little this year. I think he'll be fine and very startable, but there are a lot of experts calling Miller one of the best RBs in fantasy. I don't completely buy the whole "He just hasn't had the opportunity" argument, maybe Miller is still a flawed player and that's why he hasn't been able to establish himself to the extent people expect. Or maybe I'm just rationalizing away the fact I traded Miller for a guy who retired in the offseason.
Curtis: It wouldn't surprise me if Curt ended up with a couple more "David Johnson & Thomas Rawls" type players by the end of the season, with both Paul Perkins and Jay Ajayi having that sort of potential in my mind given their opportunity and the potential health of the guys ahead of them. It also wouldn't surprise me if Curtis ended up with 2 of the best QBs in the league again, as I'm really high on David Carr.
Dawson: I told John after the podcast that he should've stuck with Dawson for his #hottake last place team in the league. This isn't because I think Dawson has the worst team, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot going wrong for Dawson. Trading away Dez maybe helps this as I think Decker is a safer, consistent option, but Dawson has a couple of RBs with strong #2's behind them, and I could see Andrew Luck struggling this year, either with injuries or just failing to take the next step in his career development.
Andrew: It wouldn't surprise me to see Andrew make the first trade this year that has certain people (probably Shayne) outraged over how one-sided or weird it appears to be. I think Andrew has a master plan for this season, and even if it doesn't follow conventional wisdom he's going to follow it through.
Mike: Looking at Mike's team, I can't decide whether I like the looks of his starting roster or his bench better right now. Some might hate that he doesn't have your clear starters and stars, but I like that approach to building a team, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Mike shock preseason favourites Stan and Clarke to start the season, on route to a very strong year.
Keith: It's almost harder to write this about my own team than others. Do I go positive and talk about Funchess being a WR1 and Dorsett beating out Hilton and Montcrief? (both of those things would surprise me) Do I go negative and talk about worst case scenario's for Lacy and Freeman? One thing I'm feeling pretty solid about is Matthew Stafford, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him as a clear #1 QB after being the last starting QB drafted.
Shayne: Ugh, Shayne's team is so boring that I really don't know what would or wouldn't surprise me about his roster. Maybe this is the year Shayne is finally about to pull off one of his beloved 10 player deals.
Aaron: It wouldn't surprise me if Tyler Boyd is the best rookie WR this season. I think he has a good opportunity and that he establishes himself as a solid player fairly quickly, while Treadwell and Coleman are kept down by stronger WR depth in front of them and weaker QBs. It also won't surprise me when Aaron trades Greg Olsen to a team in a playoff hunt looking for a reliable TE, since it's happened the last 2 years.
Steve: I can't believe I'm going this way after everything that has happened, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Melvin Gordon become a top 10 RB this year. Despite finishing behind Joique Bell last year, I still maintain Gordon is a good player and I was right to draft him where I did last year. I never would've thought it would be worth it for me to consider keeping Gordon with my 2nd round pick, but all preseason long I've found myself liking him more and more. When Gordon is lighting up the league this year, I'm going to be kicking myself for being one year too early.
Stan: Is Stan going to have 2 starting RBs lose their jobs this year? It wouldn't surprise me to see both Booker and Washington become the guys on their teams, which could throw a big wrench in Stan's plan to repeat. Also, I disagree with John with his love of Mohamed Sanu. It wouldn't surprise me when Justin Hardy is the clear #2 WR on the Falcons at season's end.
Travis: Travis is going to trade Jamaal Charles for future help at some point this season, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the team that gets him go on to win the Championship. With how tight the league will be, the team willing to sacrifice their future for current help is going to be at an advantage. I think Travis ends the year with more keeper options than keeper spots, which isn't a bad position to be in.
John: I'm not sure how much this would surprise me, but would it be a total surprise to see Adrian Peterson have a bit of an off year? I have bad vibes from the Vikings right now, and I'm not sure what to expect from anyone on that team. One thing John is not afraid to do is make bold moves, so while it looks like John's team should be set with 2 top 10 RBs and WRs, I think either this season or this off-season John's team ends up looking drastically different.
And there we have it. I wouldn't be surprised when all of these predictions turn out to be wrong (except for Trump of course).
On the next Last Place Widsom:
So on the talk of league history, last year due to a written tic that I noticed in myself, "That wouldn't surprise me" become a regular part of the blog and I'm wanting to continue it this year. I make no claims of being successful in my predictive power; I typically try and avoid predictions unless I really feel strongly about something since it is far easier to be wrong (some of you may remember my highschool English assignment on why the Cleveland Indians would win the World Series, only to see them lose in the ALDS (I should have known better than to ever trust Cleveland for anything)). Fantasy Football, just like my other love of politics, is unpredictable and I get asked to make political predictions all the time; usually I'm very guarded and hesitant to answer. For at least this one week it's time to all out in saying what wouldn't surprise me, so take it with a grain of salt and let's get down to business.
To get this out of the way, it wouldn't surprise me to see Donald Trump win the US Election. Polls and common wisdom have been saying this is Hilary's election to lose for a long time, but for a variety of reasons this is being overstated. Time to get aboard the Trump train and look forward to seeing that big beautiful wall going up; forget about the Trump is Hitler comparisons, we're all Hitler at one point or another so might as well embrace it.
Now to the football.
Clarke: It wouldn't surprise me if Lamar Miller ultimately disappoints a little this year. I think he'll be fine and very startable, but there are a lot of experts calling Miller one of the best RBs in fantasy. I don't completely buy the whole "He just hasn't had the opportunity" argument, maybe Miller is still a flawed player and that's why he hasn't been able to establish himself to the extent people expect. Or maybe I'm just rationalizing away the fact I traded Miller for a guy who retired in the offseason.
Curtis: It wouldn't surprise me if Curt ended up with a couple more "David Johnson & Thomas Rawls" type players by the end of the season, with both Paul Perkins and Jay Ajayi having that sort of potential in my mind given their opportunity and the potential health of the guys ahead of them. It also wouldn't surprise me if Curtis ended up with 2 of the best QBs in the league again, as I'm really high on David Carr.
Dawson: I told John after the podcast that he should've stuck with Dawson for his #hottake last place team in the league. This isn't because I think Dawson has the worst team, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot going wrong for Dawson. Trading away Dez maybe helps this as I think Decker is a safer, consistent option, but Dawson has a couple of RBs with strong #2's behind them, and I could see Andrew Luck struggling this year, either with injuries or just failing to take the next step in his career development.
Andrew: It wouldn't surprise me to see Andrew make the first trade this year that has certain people (probably Shayne) outraged over how one-sided or weird it appears to be. I think Andrew has a master plan for this season, and even if it doesn't follow conventional wisdom he's going to follow it through.
Mike: Looking at Mike's team, I can't decide whether I like the looks of his starting roster or his bench better right now. Some might hate that he doesn't have your clear starters and stars, but I like that approach to building a team, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Mike shock preseason favourites Stan and Clarke to start the season, on route to a very strong year.
Keith: It's almost harder to write this about my own team than others. Do I go positive and talk about Funchess being a WR1 and Dorsett beating out Hilton and Montcrief? (both of those things would surprise me) Do I go negative and talk about worst case scenario's for Lacy and Freeman? One thing I'm feeling pretty solid about is Matthew Stafford, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him as a clear #1 QB after being the last starting QB drafted.
Shayne: Ugh, Shayne's team is so boring that I really don't know what would or wouldn't surprise me about his roster. Maybe this is the year Shayne is finally about to pull off one of his beloved 10 player deals.
Aaron: It wouldn't surprise me if Tyler Boyd is the best rookie WR this season. I think he has a good opportunity and that he establishes himself as a solid player fairly quickly, while Treadwell and Coleman are kept down by stronger WR depth in front of them and weaker QBs. It also won't surprise me when Aaron trades Greg Olsen to a team in a playoff hunt looking for a reliable TE, since it's happened the last 2 years.
Steve: I can't believe I'm going this way after everything that has happened, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Melvin Gordon become a top 10 RB this year. Despite finishing behind Joique Bell last year, I still maintain Gordon is a good player and I was right to draft him where I did last year. I never would've thought it would be worth it for me to consider keeping Gordon with my 2nd round pick, but all preseason long I've found myself liking him more and more. When Gordon is lighting up the league this year, I'm going to be kicking myself for being one year too early.
Stan: Is Stan going to have 2 starting RBs lose their jobs this year? It wouldn't surprise me to see both Booker and Washington become the guys on their teams, which could throw a big wrench in Stan's plan to repeat. Also, I disagree with John with his love of Mohamed Sanu. It wouldn't surprise me when Justin Hardy is the clear #2 WR on the Falcons at season's end.
Travis: Travis is going to trade Jamaal Charles for future help at some point this season, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the team that gets him go on to win the Championship. With how tight the league will be, the team willing to sacrifice their future for current help is going to be at an advantage. I think Travis ends the year with more keeper options than keeper spots, which isn't a bad position to be in.
John: I'm not sure how much this would surprise me, but would it be a total surprise to see Adrian Peterson have a bit of an off year? I have bad vibes from the Vikings right now, and I'm not sure what to expect from anyone on that team. One thing John is not afraid to do is make bold moves, so while it looks like John's team should be set with 2 top 10 RBs and WRs, I think either this season or this off-season John's team ends up looking drastically different.
And there we have it. I wouldn't be surprised when all of these predictions turn out to be wrong (except for Trump of course).
On the next Last Place Widsom:
- We get to discuss actual football.
- I start freaking out after a bad loss to Steve
- People start blowing up their rosters in order to claim the future breakout stars of Week One
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