Last Place Wisdom: 'Won't Back Down" - A Pre-season Primer

This is the time of year where fantasy football consumes more of my time than any other, and I'm sure I'm not alone on that point. I spend my time listening to podcasts, reading article, and generally going through what I think the draft might end up looking like. While circumstance this year means I might not have had spent quite as much time obsessing over the fine details (I spend far more time on fantasy football stuff when I'm in an office rather than playing with a child at home), it has still started to dominate my thoughts whether I'm awake or sleeping. I'm not sure if I'm alone on this point or not, but I believe this is the third year in a row that I have had dreams about draft day. Now I really don't remember much about what these dreams actually entail, all I know is that every year at about this time, my dreams turn to thoughts of sleepers, busts and getting the most value onto my team. In one sense this is unfortunate, as I would love to have my subconscious help me out when it comes to the picks I should be making, but for the most part I wake up with a blank (I do remember debating over a player in my dream that could become my 1st or 2nd round pick, so we'll see if it comes to pass). However, one part of last night's dream is so bizarre that it should stick in my mind for some time, and it had everything to do with our league's very special guest. Now I have no idea why this particular individual was in my dream or at our draft, but it was equal parts awesome and terrifying, and I will certainly be spending some time pondering what it might mean.

That's right, 50 Cent himself was at our draft, and it left me with so many questions. Why was he in Medicine Hat? Who invited him to the draft? Did we have to pay him? What does it all mean for life, the universe and everything? I think I will be left pondering those questions for some time, and I leave them with you to ponder as well as you prepare for the upcoming draft.
 
Thinking about what to write for my pre-season article, a lot of ideas had gone through my head. Now that I'm no longer the champ, a strategy memoir seemed a little out of place, and I wasn't really feeling a prediction article. What I did come to was something related to the topic that has dominate our league like no other this off-season; expansion. Going from 10-12 teams will be a big change, and the diluted talent pool will make filling out rosters more difficult than ever. While some teams are well prepared to field a talented lineup despite the new teams, a number of teams have their work cut out for them. I'm sure the thought has to be "how can we hope to compete when some teams are keeping the equivalent of 2 first rounders?", and so I figured what better way to get the season going than by bringing some positive thoughts going into the draft. Now my intention is not to present some false hope, winning the league without a number of top keepers is going to be tough, but instead to encourage everyone that by drafting well and being active on the waiver wire, every team can be competitive, and once you're competitive, all it can take it 2 or 3 hot weeks to win it all. But before I go any further, here's Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers to help set the mood:

 

Now that you're all sufficiently pumped up to face a challenge that might otherwise drag you down, there are a number of reasons for everyone to be positive when it comes to the start of the season, and beyond:

• Clarke and Travis both picked some excellent keepers in their expansion draft. Clarke has his number 1 and 2 WRs locked up for the year, while Travis got himself a solid RB and gave himself an advantage at QB over everyone who doesn't have Aaron Rodgers.
• For Curtis, the team that finished the regular season in last place, he was 165 points behind Dawson who was the playoff team with the lowest points for (and eventual league champ). This might sound like a lot, but when you really think of it, given that we start 10 guys each week, all it would take is each player to score 1.25 points more each week to make up this difference. That's not such a huge advantage to make up with a little improvement in drafting.
• While it might look like all of the best players have already been kept; that is far from the case. Looking at the keepers going into the start of last season and where players eventually ended up, the following player ranks were not kept:
• RB: 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20
• WR: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
• QB: 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
•  To break it down further, if you consider the top 10 QBs as starter material, and the top 20 RBs and WRs; then 70% of the starting QBs and 60% of the starting RBs and WRs were not keepers going into last year (the number is probably about the same for TEs since so few were kept). This is a huge amount, and just goes to show how important good drafting can be in order to fill out a competitive roster.
• The following roster could have been assembled completely from the waiver wire last year (position rank in quotations):
• QB: (Ok, there were no real good QBs available on waivers, since we started 2 and drafted most of the NFL)
• RB: Justin Forsett (8)
• RB: CJ Anderson (11)
• WR: Odell Beckham (5)
• WR: Mike Evans (10)
• Flex: Joique Bell (13)
• TE: Antonio Gates(2)
• The above lineup probably wins you the league, or at the very least goes deep into the playoffs. Being active on the waiver wire can turn a bad team into a good one, and a good team into a great one.
• Going forward, teams are going to have a harder time keeping all their good players. Each team was able to keep 1 rookie this year, but going forward those guys will no longer be rookies, and will compete with the rest of the roster for keeper spots. This could free up more guys, for draft or trade, in the coming years.

I must admit, if you're not already keeping them, finding the very best of the best is going to be tough. Only 1 of the top 7 RBs and WRs were not kept going into the season, and getting these guys is going to require some luck. You can certainly improve your odds by drafting more high upside rookies and 2nd year players than you would normally, but even then it can be tough to predict (very few experts had Odell Beckham being the breakout star of last year). All you can do is give yourself the best chance you can to find the next star, but take this to heart: given the number of concussions, arrests, suckerpunches and wife/child beatings that happen every year, turnover in the NFL is at an all time high. So in the meantime, have fun, draft well and in the immortal words of Tom Petty, don't back down....







....and in the immortal words of Fitty: