Last Place Wisdom: Week 13 - It's like Rocky, only where Rocky loses.

So it’s playoff week, and I’m sitting in an office without any internet access to conduct the research needed for an in-depth article on the matchups we’re going to see. To make matters worse, work is going to be taking me up to Edmonton for most of the week, eliminating Wednesday or Thursday as potential writing days. If it looks like I’m phoning things in this week that would be the reason why, and not because I’m overconfident after just cracking the 200 point barrier with an insane week from all of my players.

Why yes, I am just including this picture for some cheap fantasy karma against Dawson and his Cleveland Browns

So the Hollywood storyline would have been for either Mike or Andrew to make the playoffs this year, after languishing at the bottom for a good portion of the early season. Unfortunately for them, neither was able to pull out the win needed to stay ahead of Stan, who squeaked into the playoffs after sticking around the middle of the pack for the entire season. I was going to make an analogy that it was someone anticlimactic, like watching Rocky and the Karate Kid lose to the guy everyone expected, but then realized that Rocky did end up losing so maybe it doesn’t really work. In any case, congratulations to Stan, who has enough high end talent to beat anyone but who hasn’t been able to find any sort of consistency. Andrew and Mike deserve credit for sticking with it and coming so close to getting to the postseason, since I personally had counted both of them out a lot sooner on.

To be honest, by benching Marshall I was thinking I might be helping Andrew out a bit, as I didn’t think Tre Mason had the same high end potential, but it turns out I couldn’t have been more wrong. The tough part for Andrew is that unless I totally threw the game by starting my handcuffs, it wouldn’t have mattered who I started, I would have won anyways. Shayne said I peaked too early, and in a sense he’s right since it’s almost a guarantee that next week will see my point total decrease. I’m feeling confident however, as I think I’ve maybe just started to hit my stride at the right time. Luck and Brown have been good all year, but Stafford has been disappointing with Megatron out, Jennings and Miller’s injuries hurt my RB depth, Mason took a few games to get comfortable, and Lacy and Marshall have had ups and downs. One of the things I read about fantasy this year was that the key to winning is to win the flex position, meaning that most good teams can put together 2 RB and 2 WR who are competitive, and that the person who can find a star beyond that will have the advantage. Last year my team didn’t really come together until Zac Stacy’s breakout gave me an advantage at Flex, and I’m hoping Mason or Hopkins can continue their strong performances and play that role going into the playoffs. I feels good to be the person to break the 200 point mark, even if it doesn’t have quite the same meaning now that we start 2 QBs.

Mr. Manager of the Week Award

After his big breakout game, I’m extremely happy that I picked up Tre Mason when I did, and I think he could play an important role on my team going into the playoffs despite his tougher schedule. I feel wrong giving myself the award for picking him up for one reason however; as a Zac Stacy owner hearing about how good Mason looked in the preseason, I really should have drafted him as a late round backup. He would’ve been a much more valuable keeper to me if that was the case.

Because he made the playoffs this week, I think this award has to go to Stan. He made a number of smart pickups down the stretch to help him get there; CJ Anderson, Coby Fleener and the Rams D/ST being at the top of the list. I had Fleener and the Rams D as my top waiver pickups a couple of weeks, only to see them get snagged by Stan who had a higher priority. He’s the model example for why it can be ok to wait on RBs in your draft and still end up ok, as McKinnon, Robinson, Anderson, Gray and Murray have all been startable and have helped him win games even if just for one week. 

Random Thoughts

I’m writing this on Monday, so I don’t know for sure, but Shayne’s decision to start Michael Floyd over Randall Cobb cost him 6 points and potentially cost him the win over Dawson and the first round bye. I don’t know what Shayne was thinking there, as Floyd has been terrible and tremendously disappointed me all year long. Given his numbers last year I was expecting a breakout season from him, but instead he became unstartable in my mind due to his tendency to get shutout completely. (Update: Shayne held on to win, as 18 points from Tannehill was nowhere near automatic. )

Every team in the playoffs started a late round or undrafted RB this week (Mason, Ingram, Forsett, Jackson, Crowell, Robinson, Anderson). That’s something to think about for when draft time comes around next August and you’re tempted to take an average RB in the 2^nd or 3^rd round, as I know I will be.

Playoff Matchups

The Fear Boners vs NINERS – Stan might have made the playoffs, but he still has his work cut out for him. He has one thing going for him, that being that Manning and Brady gives him possibly the best 1-2 QB punch in the league. Peyton Manning’s RB is usually a solid start, and Alfred Morris usually won’t kill you. After a slow start TY Hilton has been one of the better WRs in the league. The rest of his team has questions marks. Torrey Smith has put up 6 good games out of his last 7, which I think has to be some kind of record for him, but he’s tough to trust. After a good stretch Denard Robinson has really fallen off, but Stan doesn’t have any better options. The best thing for him would probably be if Dwayne Allen misses another week, as that would make Fleener a safer start at TE, although it looks like Allen might be back.

John’s team is what it is, and what it is, is pretty tough to beat any given week. Lynch, Ingram, Thomas, Jones, Graham and Brees is probably the safest core group of players in the league. Flex is a weak point as long as Cin City doesn’t have an established started, but even then neither guy has been horrible. John’s success might come down to one thing; his long time fantasy mancrush, the guy taking up a valuable roster spot all season long, Mr. Johnny Football. Hoyer’s implosion this week means that Manziel might get a shot, which is great both for John and for us spectators. If Manziel doesn’t start, John might be left having to rely on McCown against the #1 D in the league, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Manziel does start, it’s still a scary prospect because of his lack of experience, but he has a high upside and his rushing totals mean that even his floor should be fairly high.

Prediction: I think the Saints blow out Carolina, and Buffalo hold’s Denver’s offense in check. John wins a close one, even though Manziel doesn’t play.

The Keith-glorious Basterds vs oh that’s nasty – Typically Thursday night games are a little lower scoring than games the rest of the week, and I’m hoping that continues since Dawson has a good matchup against Chicago for both Bryant and Witten. Bryant, Green and Bell are really the heart of Dawson’s team, the rest of his players aren’t really going to lose him games but haven’t had the big performances required to really push his team to the point that it scares you. His recipe for success will be hope for 15-20 points from Ryan and Tannehill, get 8-10 points from Jackson, Edelman and Witten, and then hope one or more of his big 3 go off for 20+ points. I might regret myself for posting this later, but he might want to consider starting Still instead of Edelman, who has had 3 good games in a row and who has the higher upside.

I see a lot of Red matchups when I look at my roster this week, which you never want to see going into the playoffs. Luck and Brown don’t have easy matchups, but they’ve been so good this year that even with a tough matchup I don’t worry about them. New Orleans might not have a good defense, but they’ve been tough on TEs, putting me in the position of having to decide between my new guy and my old one. Finally, Mason gets Washington the week after he breaks out, who can’t defend the pass but have been surprisingly good against the run. I have a tough call to make with Brandon Marshall, who has become pretty much touchdown dependent this year, but I’m leaning towards Mason who is probably the safer play. Where I can feel confident is in my RBs, where Lacy and Jennings have the 2^nd and 3^rd best matchups they could get.

Prediction: Call me a homer, but I think unless Dawson has a crazy good week, or I get absolutely terrible weeks from Luck and Brown, I end up taking this one. Dawson commented to me yesterday on the amount of luck it has taken him to get where he has so far, and while we would each be 3-3 if we played each other over the last 6 games, I think now that I’m healthy and done my byes I have as good of a chance as I could hope for at repeating as League Champ.