Last Place Wisdom: Week Three - Warlocks!!!
In this week's Power Powell rankings, John makes the comment that this season seems to be cursed by some form of black magic. I was thinking the very same thing; this season has had more craziness and unexpected results than I can remember in quite some time, I really don't know what to make of it. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees should be easily within the top 3 of QB, yet both have been anything but sure things all year. Of the top 12 WRs, only 6 would be guys you expect (Julio, my boy Antonio Brown, Megatron, Nelson, Dez & Marshall), the other 6 weren't even on the radar (Benjamin, Edelman, Steve Smith Sr., Maclin, Hopkins and Hurn (a Jaguar...really?)). RB is probably the most messed up of them all. Go to the player list on NFL and look at the RBs in the top 20, and outside of a few expected names, tell me that it doesn't look like a Warlock has been messing with fantasy football this year.
Despite the craziness that has afflicted fantasy football to start the year, I really think things will begin to settle down into more of an expected result as the year goes on. Fantasy football is a long season, and it's easy to overreact to small sample sizes. That can lead to you trying to "chase the points" on the waiver wire and in setting your roster, rather than sticking with the best talent in the best role. It's tempting to try and pick up the guy off waivers that just had a big week, or to play the guy who just went off for 2 touchdowns over your under performing 1st round selection, but that can easily backfire. Personally, I like to trust the guys I drafted as long as they are getting the opportunity, even if the points might not be there yet. Rueben Randal and Justin Hunter are 2 examples of this, neither has broken out yet, but they're getting targets and I believe in the talent, so I'm not going to drop them for a Devin Hester/Eddie Royal/Allen Hurns based on small sample size. Of course, there can be just as much risk in sticking with guys who are not performing for far too long, so you need to judge wisely.
It goes without saying that I'm much happier with my result this week than last, considering I didn't lose because I left 22 points on the bench. Although my players individually have not been consistent, as a team I have been, so I think I should be able to avoid many of the lows that can give your opponent easy wins. As for my opponent, Curtis has had trouble finding any sort of consistency, as injuries and sophomore slumps have left Russel Wilson as Curt's only go-to player for the first 3 weeks.
On a league wide level, I was pumped to see Aaron beat Steve after my tough loss to him last week, and I'm liking the overall parity that has emerged so far. John's team has been scary good so far, and it hasn't even been close. I like when John's team is good so that I can root against him, but our unofficial rivalry also wants me to see him fail. This could be the 1st year in a while that both John and I have good teams at the same time however, which should make the head-to-head matchups fun. Shayne was burned by trusting Tampa Bay (in his defense I liked them before the season began), and I still think Andrew turns it around.
Mr. Manager of the Week Award
Injuries
To be honest, I haven't really paid too much attention to injuries this week, so check on your own players. Curt and Mike just can't escape injuries though, with Rudolph, Foster and Pierce being the latest to go down.
Random Thoughts
Players who have had a rough start who I think turn it around soon: Forte, Lacy, Rodgers, Ellington, Demariyus Thomas, Indy's WRs, Keenan Allen.
I'm thinking now that teams are starting to get a sense of what they have, that we might see some trades. I have a few things on the go, that hopefully can be sorted out and finalized in the near future.
This is an interesting week for QBs on the waiver wire. Carson Palmer, Brian Hoyer, Austin Davis and Teddy Bridgewater are all good options for teams looking to shore up their QB position, of which Shayne has to be the #1 contender.
My man crush on Antonio Brown is only growing each week. Watching him regularly, it's unreal how consistent and talented the guy is. I couldn't imagine not having him at this point, and it makes me think of what John must feel towards Jimmy Graham. My Steeler homerism makes me insanely jealous of Dawson and Leveon Bell, who looks sooo good this year.
Week Four Preview
The Keith-glorious Bastards vs RW Throws a Sexy Deep Ball - Andrew is hit hard by the Bye-week this week, which could make it tough for him to turn his season around. Cousins is a good fill in and has a good matchup, and there are lots of opportunities for QB-WR crossovers in Stafford-Tate and Big Ben-Antonio. Both of us need to find a new D/ST for the week, which could have some big implications in the result.
BISP vs The Fear Boners - The Boner Bowl!!! If these is any chance for Mike to get his first win, this is it. He always plays John tough, and John is without Lynch, Bernard, Hill, Ingram or Jonathan Stewart. Arian Foster's status could potentially be the decider; if he plays it strengthens Mike and leaves John out in the cold. In any case, I'm excited for this matchup.
oh that's nasty vs NFL Owner -Right now Shayne is left starting Ryan Fitzpatrick....that is not a good situation to be in. I have a hunch on which way Shayne is going to go with his QB situation, but I'm interested to see how it plays out and whether Mike or Curtis snag the guy Shayne might have been going for ahead of him. Dawson's team is solid, and while I don't like his RB situation other than Bell, it could be looking up if Bortles improves the Jags offense or if Sankey can become the unquestioned starter.
NINERS vs Sideliners - Well, Brady didn't do anything against Oakland, and I officially worry about his fantasy season. Stan will be in tough without Manning this week, and what was once his strength (RB) is looking sketchy with Peterson out and Ball underperforming. I feel like there should be a rivalry between these two, mainly because they are the two newest expansion teams in the league. In my mind I'll just have to keep on believing that they hate each other and want the other to fail.
Aaron-PRIMETIME-Clapperton vs What are the Chances -Curtis is another team hurt by the bye week, as what few consistent performers he has will be out this week. This really should be Aaron's game to lose, especially with Brees having such a good matchup against Dallas. Given Aaron's history in fantasy football however, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him lose in devastating fashion as soon as things begin looking up for him. Hopefully he has some goats ready to sacrifice for continued fantasy football success.
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| Those of you familiar with my extensive WoW career will understand that I hate Warlocks, which are really just wanna-be Mages. Maybe that's why they're focused on cursing Eddy Lacy so much this year. |
Despite the craziness that has afflicted fantasy football to start the year, I really think things will begin to settle down into more of an expected result as the year goes on. Fantasy football is a long season, and it's easy to overreact to small sample sizes. That can lead to you trying to "chase the points" on the waiver wire and in setting your roster, rather than sticking with the best talent in the best role. It's tempting to try and pick up the guy off waivers that just had a big week, or to play the guy who just went off for 2 touchdowns over your under performing 1st round selection, but that can easily backfire. Personally, I like to trust the guys I drafted as long as they are getting the opportunity, even if the points might not be there yet. Rueben Randal and Justin Hunter are 2 examples of this, neither has broken out yet, but they're getting targets and I believe in the talent, so I'm not going to drop them for a Devin Hester/Eddie Royal/Allen Hurns based on small sample size. Of course, there can be just as much risk in sticking with guys who are not performing for far too long, so you need to judge wisely.
It goes without saying that I'm much happier with my result this week than last, considering I didn't lose because I left 22 points on the bench. Although my players individually have not been consistent, as a team I have been, so I think I should be able to avoid many of the lows that can give your opponent easy wins. As for my opponent, Curtis has had trouble finding any sort of consistency, as injuries and sophomore slumps have left Russel Wilson as Curt's only go-to player for the first 3 weeks.
On a league wide level, I was pumped to see Aaron beat Steve after my tough loss to him last week, and I'm liking the overall parity that has emerged so far. John's team has been scary good so far, and it hasn't even been close. I like when John's team is good so that I can root against him, but our unofficial rivalry also wants me to see him fail. This could be the 1st year in a while that both John and I have good teams at the same time however, which should make the head-to-head matchups fun. Shayne was burned by trusting Tampa Bay (in his defense I liked them before the season began), and I still think Andrew turns it around.
Mr. Manager of the Week Award
This was a tough award to give this week, as I narrowed it
down to 2 options. I think one of the best moves of the week was Andrew picking
up Kirk Cousins, who looks like he could be a really solid option for the rest
of the year. Because neither of this 2 QBs are guaranteed starts, having
another solid option could be huge for him going forward.
That being said, because of his 2-1 start and huge win last
week, I'm going to give the award to Mr. Primetime himself. Maybe this is just
another example of Aaron selling his soul to the devil, but he made some smart
moves with his roster this week, and they deserve the recognition. The biggest
one is realizing that Trent Richardson is not very good, and tht Ahmad Bradshaw
is the Indy RB you want to start. Choosing to start Bradshaw over Vereen (who I
thought had a great matchup with Oakland) was the difference between winning
and losing. Apparently Aaron can manage more than Altus Geomatics.
To be honest, I haven't really paid too much attention to injuries this week, so check on your own players. Curt and Mike just can't escape injuries though, with Rudolph, Foster and Pierce being the latest to go down.
Random Thoughts
Players who have had a rough start who I think turn it around soon: Forte, Lacy, Rodgers, Ellington, Demariyus Thomas, Indy's WRs, Keenan Allen.
I'm thinking now that teams are starting to get a sense of what they have, that we might see some trades. I have a few things on the go, that hopefully can be sorted out and finalized in the near future.
This is an interesting week for QBs on the waiver wire. Carson Palmer, Brian Hoyer, Austin Davis and Teddy Bridgewater are all good options for teams looking to shore up their QB position, of which Shayne has to be the #1 contender.
My man crush on Antonio Brown is only growing each week. Watching him regularly, it's unreal how consistent and talented the guy is. I couldn't imagine not having him at this point, and it makes me think of what John must feel towards Jimmy Graham. My Steeler homerism makes me insanely jealous of Dawson and Leveon Bell, who looks sooo good this year.
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| This is the most impressive thing I've seen since the Week One Antonio Brown Kick/Cordarelle Paterson TD gifs. Hopkins looks like he might be the breakout 2nd year WR I was hoping for. |
Week Four Preview
The Keith-glorious Bastards vs RW Throws a Sexy Deep Ball - Andrew is hit hard by the Bye-week this week, which could make it tough for him to turn his season around. Cousins is a good fill in and has a good matchup, and there are lots of opportunities for QB-WR crossovers in Stafford-Tate and Big Ben-Antonio. Both of us need to find a new D/ST for the week, which could have some big implications in the result.
BISP vs The Fear Boners - The Boner Bowl!!! If these is any chance for Mike to get his first win, this is it. He always plays John tough, and John is without Lynch, Bernard, Hill, Ingram or Jonathan Stewart. Arian Foster's status could potentially be the decider; if he plays it strengthens Mike and leaves John out in the cold. In any case, I'm excited for this matchup.
oh that's nasty vs NFL Owner -Right now Shayne is left starting Ryan Fitzpatrick....that is not a good situation to be in. I have a hunch on which way Shayne is going to go with his QB situation, but I'm interested to see how it plays out and whether Mike or Curtis snag the guy Shayne might have been going for ahead of him. Dawson's team is solid, and while I don't like his RB situation other than Bell, it could be looking up if Bortles improves the Jags offense or if Sankey can become the unquestioned starter.
NINERS vs Sideliners - Well, Brady didn't do anything against Oakland, and I officially worry about his fantasy season. Stan will be in tough without Manning this week, and what was once his strength (RB) is looking sketchy with Peterson out and Ball underperforming. I feel like there should be a rivalry between these two, mainly because they are the two newest expansion teams in the league. In my mind I'll just have to keep on believing that they hate each other and want the other to fail.
Aaron-PRIMETIME-Clapperton vs What are the Chances -Curtis is another team hurt by the bye week, as what few consistent performers he has will be out this week. This really should be Aaron's game to lose, especially with Brees having such a good matchup against Dallas. Given Aaron's history in fantasy football however, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him lose in devastating fashion as soon as things begin looking up for him. Hopefully he has some goats ready to sacrifice for continued fantasy football success.
Alrighty, first of all our rivalry is not unofficial. We're the Redsox/Yankees of the TFLOEG.
ReplyDeleteMoving on though, your advice to the owners to stick to the guys the kept/drafted is prudent. There will always be flashy toys, but they rarely stick.
Two qualms I have to politely disagree with on the other hand. I still don't understand your love for Ellington, outside of the Atlanta and Tennessee games last year his numbers are Sproles-esque (Saints) and I don't see him as a durable workhorse running back. Secondly I'm calling out my Bust candidate for this year in the form of a dramatic statement: "Even though Ingram is out for a month he will still finish the year with more total fantasy points then his pair of stand in backs from Alabama (Richardson/Lacy) COMBINED!!!" I know it's nuts, but I feel there may be a connection between Alabama RBs and adjusting to the NFL. Maybe I'm just looney.
Maybe you are just looney, but you're likely not alone in that position. While I appreciate your willingness to make a dramatic statement in regards to Eddy Lacy's Bust potential, I was actually thinking of making my own dramatic statement in regards to his ability to bounce back: "From now until the end of the year, Eddy Lacy will outscore Marshawn Lynch from this point forward".
ReplyDeleteNow it's possible that I'm totally wrong and I'm conceding my loss in 2 weeks time, but I still have faith. Green Bay has faced 3 of the best 5 run defenses in the league up till now. Aaron Rodger's told me everything is going to be ok, and I trust in his offense still.
Aaron Rodgers is my friend...remember I own him :)
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