Memoir from the Champ - 2014

It was always my plan to do a wrap up of what went right with my team that led me to my first championship, but having a newborn kind of got in the way of following through on that. The more that I think about it though, now is probably a better time to share my thoughts, considering at this time of year people might be somewhat interested in reading and talking about fantasy football. With that in mind and with the season only a few weeks away, this is my comprehensive post on my championship season, my draft strategy, and our fantasy football league as a whole.

No matter what happens from here on out, I have a championship under my belt. That deserves a banner

 

One thing that needs to be addressed is the title of my blog posts. Last Place Wisdom might seem somewhat odd coming from the reigning champ, but I think it helps serve as a valuable reminder. The same thoughts and general strategy that led my team to last place in 2012 ended up getting me 1^st place in 2013. I don’t think it’s an odd occurrence either, John went from 1^st to worst in 2013, both Curtis and Dawson went from runners up to out of the playoffs, and Andrew went from 2^nd last to regular season champ. I want to go on record as saying that if I drafted where John did in 2013, I would have taken many of the same players he did, and likely ended up with a similar result. In the end, it all comes down to this: Strategy, skill and research can only take you so far, as bad luck or totally unpredictable events have a big role in determining the outcome of a season.

Who needs a strategy going into the draft? Shouldn’t I just pick the best players?

Ideally, picking the best players is always the key, but there’s more to it than that. Drew Brees might be a better player than Matthew Stafford, but if I wait till the 8^th round to take Stafford, it means my early round RBs and WRs will likely be better than the player who drafted Brees. It’s all about position scarcity, draft value and deciding where to make sacrifices.

After playing fantasy football for 4 years, my strategy and draft tendencies are pretty strongly in place. In my opinion, it is far easier to find QBs, WRs and TEs who can play and be at least acceptable each week than it is to find RBs, and I draft accordingly. Last season was my most extreme example of that, as I took 4 RBs in my first 5 rounds: Marshawn Lynch (1), MJD (2), David Wilson (4) and Eddy Lacy (5). This strategy can come back to haunt you, as RBs are far more likely to bust than established WRs or QBs, and a much safer strategy might be to take the star WRs and QBs early, and hope you find a sleeper RB late. Of my 4 early RBs, only 2 were any good, and if I took Arian Foster or Trent Richardson rather than Lynch, my team would’ve been in trouble. You can find RBs later, Fred Jackson and Zac Stacy are examples of this, but my own strategy is to find guys who I like and then take them early.

At QB and WR, the thing I value most of all is consistency. At each position, I want 1 guy who I can count on each and every week to put up points. If I can find that 1 guy, I can fill the other spots with lottery picks and guys with upside. Both Matt Stafford and Brandon Marshall did that for me in a big way. Part of my problem in 2012 was that I didn’t have a QB I could trust each week, and I started 8 different QBs throughout the year. Sometimes it worked out and I got 20+ points out of them, but just as often I got well under 10. With 2 QBs this year, I’m certainly going to look for 2 guys I am comfortable starting every week, rather than hoping an inconsistent guy comes through for me.

At WR, Brandon Marshall has been the 2^nd most consistently startable WR over the past 3 years, only behind Megatron. I think finding that one guy who can be a top 10 receiver each and every week is an important part of building a strong team, and as important as good RBs are, one shouldn’t be afraid to reach and get at least 1 star WR. My team lucked out and Antonio Brown took a step forward, not only scoring in the top 10 at the position but being incredibly consistent each and every week.

In my opinion, no position is more frustrating and overrated than that of TE. Other than Jimmy Graham, there is no TE in the entire league that I would feel excited about having on my team, not Vernon Davis, not Jason Witten, not Jordan Cameron, and my draft will reflect that. I’ve taken the “best” guys early (Antonio Gates and Rob Gronkowski). I’ve taken flyers on guys I think have upside (Fred Davis and Jared Cook). No matter what I do, I find that every year I just hate the entire position. I will most likely take whatever TE is left in the late rounds, and I think I will have as good a chance as everyone not named John at having a TE I can be satisfied with at the end of the year.

Outside of maybe 1 or 2 exceptions (Seattle D, Gostkowski), both Kickers and D/ST are a crapshoot. The Houston Texans were the 2^nd D taken last year...they were the absolute worst in the league. No one thought about taking KC’s D yet they turned out to be the best. Not only that, but Houston’s D was taken before Fred Jackson, who was a top 10 RB basically all year, and Chicago’s D was taken before Knowshon Moreno, who was a top 5 back. In the same vein, we have kickers being taken before guys like Jullius Thomas, Michael Crabtree or Danny Woodhead. I know some people might disagree with me, but your last pick should always be a kicker, and you shouldn’t pick a D any earlier than the 3^rd last round. If you can’t find a D you like, just pick up whoever is playing Jacksonville each week, and by the end of the season you’ll probably have top 5 points out of your defense. Otherwise, it’s better to take RBs and WRs and hope they breakout.

To sum it all up, this is the strategy that won me the league last year (but is also capable of landing you in last place): Lots of RBs early, at least 1 WR that I feel really comfortable about, a solid QB without paying highly for them, and finding TEs, D/ST and K wherever I can.

But how important is the draft really? Can’t I just find players on the waiver wire?

Of my roster, all of these guys were players I drafted: Stafford, Lynch, Lacy, Marshall, Brown, F. Jackson. Those were my key players all year long, and I think that shows the importance of nailing your draft. If you look at Andrew’s team, he didn’t have a single position player who really started for him who he added from the waiver wire all year. Meanwhile, I switched out TEs, Kickers and D/ST on a regular basis, as they are always able to be found on the waiver wire.

There are always exceptions. Zac Stacy was a waiver wire add who ended up just outside the top 10 for me. Alshon Jeffery was the 6^th best WR as a waiver wire add for John. Phil Rivers and Nick Foles were both top 10 QBs that could be had off the wire. My opinion is that you can’t rely on finding these guys off the wire however; they are bonuses to add to an already solid roster, not guys you can rely on to fix a team.

So what does it all mean?

Going from worst to first has had a big effect on me for sure. Despite doing everything “right” according to the “experts”:, doing a ton of research and obsessing over my draft board, going into last year I was coming off 2 disappointing seasons in a row. It was a little disheartening, as it makes you second guess what you’re doing and I really had no idea what to do to fix it. Winning it all helped show me that there was nothing drastically wrong with my strategy per se, and it’s all about getting fortunate with who you pick, injuries, and the week to week matchups. Despite all my preparation, I got lucky, and I think you have to be in order to come out with a championship. In 2013 I had no real injuries to any of my stars, my mid round picks had breakout seasons (Lacy and Brown), and my biggest competition (Andrew) had a bad week in the semi-finals when he would have beat me if he made it to the championship game.

There’s no strategy that will work every time, so figure out what makes the most sense to you and just go with it. 2 years ago John took a TE and QB early, and went heavier on WR than on RB and won it all with smart drafting. This year, John went heavy on RB early and they ended up all being disappointing. If you want to, go into the draft with a Top 200 player list and just take the guy that appeals the most to you at the time.

In the end, the important part is having fun. That being said check this out:

Overall Records In TFLOEG History

Keith 34-24

John 32-26

Mike 29-29

Dawson 27-17

Andrew 25-33

Curtis 24-34

Shayne 24-20

Aaron 14-30

Stan 10-6

Steve 9-7

Sara 6-8

Win Percentage

Stan Win 63%

Dawson Win 61%

Keith Win 58%

Steve Win 56%

John Win 55%

Shane Win 55%

Mike Win 50%

Sara Win 43%

Andrew Win 43%

Curtis Win 41%

Aaron Win 32%

So what does it all mean? I’m the champ. (Dawson and Stan aren’t bad either, in a smaller sample size)

And yes John, you can consider this me calling you out for the year. You always have a target in my mind, and I know you don’t need the extra motivation to avoid another year like last year, but here it is anyway.

11 days till draft day!