Last Place Wisdom: Keepers!

Fantasy Football season is almost upon us, and the draft is little more than a month away. While I know you’re all dying to hear how my Last Place Wisdom turned into Championship Winning Wisdom, I’m going to save my thoughts on last season and my strategy until a little closer to the draft.

For now, I’m going to quickly outline how I see the keeper’s going this off-season. According to the Commissioner, around half the league has already submitted their keepers, so my thoughts might be of little to no use. I’m going to do it anyways, just to see how accurately I predict what will happen and to help out those who still need to decide on their keepers.

No, I won't be discussing housekeepers in this post.

For those not aware of the keeper policy, here’s it in a nutshell. You can keep up to 4 players, giving up a draft pick based on the round where those players were selected. Players drafted in Rounds 10-18 count as Round 10 at minimum. Undrafted players start at Round 7. Every year you keep a player, his round increases by 1.

These are the keepers I would make based on each team’s roster. I’ll provide a brief explanation for certain choices.

Sexy Sacks Men

1.       Eddy Lacy (5)

2.       Zac Stacey (6, undrafted)

3.       Antonio Brown (7)

4.       Matt Stafford (8)

My toughest choice was to throw back Marshawn Lynch. He’s a stud, and I won’t get him back with my 1^st round selection, and it is tough to let go of my best player. However, both Lacy and Stacey should give me a solid running game, and should be solid contributors longer than Lynch. Brown and Stafford are too good of value at where I drafted them to give them up. It leaves me with my first 4 picks, and forms a solid basis for a run at another title.

RW Throws a Sexy Deep Ball

1.       LeSean McCoy (1)

2.       Matt Forte (2)

3.       Demariyus Thomas (3)

4.       Percy Harvin (10) (Although I know Andrew will keep his fantasy man-crush, Jordan Cameron for a 10^th)

Andrew’s first 3 choices are easy, and all could very easily be 1^st rounders if we drafted again. If I was making the decision, I’d keep Percy Harvin, but all my conversations have told me Andrew will keep Cameron. It’s a solid choice, as he already was a top 5 TE and could be even better with Johnny Football throwing to him all year. He might not have his top picks, but his keepers will be the core of a successful team again.

The Fear Boners

1.       Julio Jones (2)

2.       Jimmy Graham (3)

3.       Alshon Jeffery (6)

4.       Giovani Bernard (7)

John has some really good value with Jeffery and Bernard as his 6 and 7^th rounders. If Julio can stay healthy he’s a good keeper at 2, although TY Hilton at 8 would be another alternative. He still has a hole at RB, but this core could be dangerous if he nails his #1 and 4^th round picks.

NFL Owner

1.       Calvin Johnson (1)

2.       Aaron Rodgers (2)

3.       DeMarco Murray (3)

4.       Pierre Garcon (6) (although I think Shayne will keep Randall Cobb as a 4^th Rounder instead)

Shayne is giving up his top picks on his keepers, but Rodgers and Johnson are arguably the top WR and QB in the league and well worth it. If it’s me, I keep Garcon with a 6^th as I think that’s the best value, although Cobb is not a bad pick either, especially as a Packer’s fan.

The Miracle Mets 1969

1.       Drew Brees (1)

2.       Reggie Bush (4)

3.       DeSean Jackson (5)

4.       Golden Tate (10)

Drew Brees is Aaron’s only real stud keeper, but Bush and Jackson are good #2 options. He still has his 2^nd and 3^rd rounders to try and find the star RB and WR he needs, and I think Tate represents a solid value at 10.

What are the Chances

1.       Andre Ellington (6)

2.       Keenan Allen (7)

3.       Knowshon Moreno (9)

4.       Ben Tate (10)

Curtis owes much of his keeper to the trade I made him for Victor Cruz late in the year, showing how it’s possible to rebuild a team once you’re out of it by looking for good value keepers. Ellington, Moreno and Tate are all solid starting RBs, and Allen is a solid #2 WR. Still having his first 5 picks, Curtis needs to find a RB, WR and QB capable of starring in the league, but his keepers give him depth.

Oh that’s Nasty

1.       AJ Green (2)

2.       Dez Bryant (3)

3.       Leveon Bell (7)

4.       Toby Gerhart or Joique Bell (6)

I thought Gerhart was drafted but can’t seem to find him. In any case, I think Dawson’s top 3 keepers are a no brainer, and give him the best 1-2 WR combo in our league. Bell is a decent RB2 or flex, and if he keeps Gerhart or Bell they become solid backup RBs as well. He knows his key will be to find a QB, but he has high enough picks he should be able to do that.

BISP

1.       Arian Foster (1)

2.       Cam Newton (5)

3.       Torrey Smith (7)

4.       RG3 (8)

Mike claims he didn’t know it was a keeper league when he dropped Julio Jones, I’m not going to comment on that, but it is what it is. Mike has perhaps the hardest keepers to decide upon. I think Newton is his only given, and because it is a 2QB league for the year, I think it makes sense to keep RG3. Foster might not be worth a 1^st rounder, but he is still a good running back. Drafting 2^nd, Mike should have good options available if he decides to throw him back. Kenny Stills (10) and Michael Floyd (10) would be young guys Mike could take a flyer on and hope they improve going into their 2^nd and 3^rd seasons.

NINERS

1.       Adrian Peterson (1)

2.       Peyton Manning (5)

3.       Monte Ball (7)

4.       Michael Crabtree (10)

Stan has potentially the best value keeper in the league, with Peyton Manning for a 5^th. Ball, Crabtree and Peterson are all no brainers in my mind as well. With plenty of high picks to fill out his roster, anything but a Peterson and Manning injury should see Stan being competitive. It will be interesting to watch if his trade with Shayne pays off, he arguable got the slightly better players in Peterson and Manning, but both guys likely only have 1-2 years left as good keepers.

Sideliners

1.       Jamaal Charles (1)

2.       Jordy Nelson (8)

3.       Jay Cutler (9)

4.       Julius Thomas (10)

Steve has some interesting choices. Alfred Morris (2), Vincent Jackson (3), Tony Romo (7) and Rashad Jennings (UD) would all be solid choices, but I think the fact this is a 2 QB league makes Jay Cutler a solid pick where Steve could keep him.  In any case, he has plenty of good value in filling out his roster.

Time will tell how accurate my keeper predictions were, but most of all I'm looking forward to seeing which player gets thrown back that turns out to have an incredible year.