Last Place Wisdom: Draft Recap

Of course the best part of the season for me is usually the time between your draft and half time of the first game, when you realize that you’ve made a huge mistake. Watching the players who were supposed to be your core getting injured or struggling to look like they even belong in the NFL can set the stage for a long year, but right now none of that matters, as everyone on your roster is potentially an All-Star, Bounce-back or Break-out player, and that means we should enjoy the couple of days before the season starts and ruins it all.

Coming out of, what is in my opinion, the best and most competitive draft we’ve had yet, I wanted to take some time to go through our rosters and give my take on what I saw. I figure to give this some structure that I would highlight players from each team that falls into 3 categories. First, I will pick a player that in my opinion should be Solid As A Rock, and the guy that while maybe not the biggest star, will be in the lineup every week. Second will be the player that most makes me want to say “Him?”, or the guy that I think was drafted far too early. Third will be the player most likely to make you win the Mr. Manager Award for looking like a Fantasy Managing Genius by the end of the year. Of course, this is from the same thought process that made me end up in last place, which I feel I need to point out whenever possible.

NFL Owner

Solid As A Rock – Larry Fitzgerald – I’m going against conventional wisdom, which would be to place All Day Adrian Peterson in this spot, but with his injury history and the improvement at QB, I see Fitzgerald having a big comeback year.

Him? – Tavon Austin – I thought about Antonio Gates in this spot, since I was burned so badly by him 2 years ago, but Shayne waited till the 15^th Round for him so I won’t criticize. Austin has tons of skill, but history has shown that rookie WR’s taken early in fantasy drafts do not typically live up to expectations.

Mr. Manager Award – Pierre Garcon – I love this pick of Shayne’s, as Garcon has top 10 upside if RGIII can stay healthy.

BISP

Solid As A Rock – Frank Gore – This pick made Mike hate himself at the time, but in my opinion he was the last RB2 on the board that you can trust. He doesn’t have high upside, but you can count on double digit points from him most weeks.

Him? – Not Drafting Ben Tate – There is no one that I can see where Mike went totally off the board with selecting anyone, but given Foster’s injury concern, not having Ben Tate might be the biggest mistake of Mike’s draft. I’d have taken him over Ingram at the time for sure.

Mr. Manager Award – Ryan Broyles – I wanted this guy for myself, and would have taken him before Mike had another chance at him. Could have a big year with Megatron being triple teamed every play.

Oh That’s Nasty

Solid As A Rock – Tony Gonzalez – The best TE in NFL history is still one of the best in fantasy. While the majority of the league cannot trust their TE’s from week to week, Dawson will be able to start his with confidence.

Him? – Le’Veon Bell – I like this pick in Round 13, but not in Round 7. He will be back during the season, but foot injuries have a way of lingering (just see MJD last year). Even when he’s back, Pittsburgh does not have a great OL. Rookie RB’s worked out for Dawson last year, let’s see if he can do it again

Mr. Manager Award – Lamar Miller – I like him more as a #3 RB than a #2, but he has tons of skill and was on my radar a few rounds later. Dawson’s WRs are as solid as they come, so a high upside #2 might not be a bad thing.

Sexy Sacks Men

Solid as A Rock – Marshawn Lynch – The thought around the table was that I wanted Doug Martin, and while I like the guy a lot, he has more risk than Lynch. Lynch is as safe as it gets when picking a RB, which was my goal (now watch him sit out multiple games with a mysterious back injury this year).

Him? – Michael Vick – I typically don’t like to pick a backup QB, but I wanted Vick’s upside and I didn’t want to let him fall to John. I was terrified of John reaping the rewards of a Chip Kelly offense, so took him earlier than I would normally like. It could pay off big, or it could explode like Mike Vick’s ribs as I passed on an upside RB instead.

Mr. Manager Award – Kenbrell Thompkins – I know I crapped on rookie WR’s earlier, I just think the 12^th Round is a better place to take them than the 7th. Amendola will get hurt, and Brady could make Thompkins a star.

WhiteKnucklers (Or Reading Dwayne Bowe?)

Solid As A Rock – Dwayne Bowe – I figured I should get his name on here somehow. Alex Smith is the best QB he’s ever had, and I think Bowe has a big year. He could easily be a top 10 WR, and will be starting all year.

Him? – Ryan Matthews – I almost had no one to put in this spot, I like Andrew’s draft that much. Matthews is a risky play compared to a few of the RBs who went after him, but he has upside and is Andrew’s #3.

Mr. Manager Award – Josh Gordon – There are 5 or 6 guys I could put in this spot. Andrew was thinking the exact same thing as me with a lot of sleepers, but I think Gordon has a huge year after coming back from suspension.

What Are the Chances

Solid As A Rock – Matt Ryan – He might never be a top 3 QB, but he is consistently good with less risk than almost anyone else. I would’ve targeted him if he lasted to me.

Him? – BenJarvis Green-Ellis – I know Curtis needed a RB, but I don’t like the Law Firm this year. I think Gio Bernard take a lot of his touches, although Green-Ellis might get more touchdowns. Not a bad pick, just lacking in upside.

Mr. Manager Award – Knowshon Moreno – He could be the starting RB in Denver, which would make him a top 20 RB easily. He was a great risk to take at the time.

Sideliners

 

Solid As A Rock – Alfred Morris – He fell a lot longer than he should have in my opinion. As a RB#2 he is as good as you can get.

Him? – Shonn Greene – I just don’t like this guy. He’s not a great RB and I don’t think he gets enough goal line touches to give him value.

Mr. Manager Award – Mike Williams – The receiver Aaron should’ve drafted. I think Steve has great WR depth with Nelson, Austin and rounding it out with Williams. He should be able to come up with a couple of solid options each week.

NINERS

Solid As A Rock – Calvin Johnson – I might not like to take a WR in the first round, but I predict another big year from Megatron.

Him? – Darren McFadden – I was never interested in taking him, mainly because I don’t want to hate myself and my team. Always injured, and has been terrible when healthy the last couple of years.

Mr. Manager Award – Danny Woodhead – Woodhead is one broken Ryan Matthews’ collarbone away from the starting job in San Diego. He will certainly outperform his 16^th Round selection.

The Godfather

Solid As A Rock – Stevan Ridley – Drafting in Round 2, Ridley is a lock for a good year because the Patriots like to run in close. Ideally he is your #2 RB, but he is solid if you have to rely on him.

Him? – Mike Wallace – I don’t just hate him because the left the Steelers. He has been massively overrated, and he was not a good receiver last year. Going from Roethlisberger to Tannehill is a downgrade no matter how you look at it. Mike Williams would be a better pick.

Mr. Manager Award – Isaiah Pead –  Pead could easily become St. Louis starting RB, and getting him in the 2^nd to last round could work out for Aaron. 

The War Boners

Solid As A Rock – Roddy White – I love Roddy White. He might not be as high end as some of the other receivers, but he is Mr. Consistent, so I like John’s pick here.

Him? – Andrew Luck – Here is where I disagree with John. I don’t see Luck having a great year. He had more dropped interceptions than anyone, 5 rushing touchdowns which is not repeatable (only Newton and Tebow have had that many rushing touchdowns in back to back years as a QB), and had most of his points coming from behind. I think Indy has a better defense and doesn’t throw as much, and think Wilson, Kaep, Stafford or RG3 are better picks a round or 2 later. I thought about Stills here as well, as I wouldn’t have picked him for rounds, and New Orleans does not produce consistent WR’s.

Mr. Manager Award – Gio Bernard – Gio Bernard has all the skill to be a star RB, and he could easily win the starting job in a few weeks. Passing on him to take Antonio Brown instead will be something I watch all season.

Wrap-Up and Bold Predictions

I think this year will be tighter and more competitive than any of the past years, and right now I can only see one or two teams that stick out from the pack, for good or bad.

Like every year at draft time, I really like my team, and think I have a nice mix of consistency and upside compared to previous years. The only place I feel lacking is in having a late round RB who could totally break out.

To end it off, I wanted to make a few bold predictions.

1. If MJD stays relatively healthy and Gronk plays 10 games, I make the playoffs easily. It’s a big “If” at this point, but with those 2 I will put my team up against anyone's.
2. Andrew ends the year with the best regular season record. I LOVE Andrew’s team from top to bottom, and I think one or two of his sleepers will go off. Andrew has the biggest turnaround from last year.
3. John struggles to make the playoffs, but ultimately does. You might question who am I to be calling out the Champ, and you would be right, but I’m not as intimidated by his team as previous years. I’ve made my feelings known on Luck, and while I like White a lot, Julio is the better talent on the team with more upside. I think he has the weakest starting QB and WR spots in the league.  His strength is TE, where he has the best, and his depth at RB, where he has the most guys with upside. He will have to rely on a solid waiver pickup for a WR, or to trade rape someone by using his RB’s, but there are more questions on his team than any year before.

On the next Last Place Widsom

• Recap of the Week 1 games.
• Break down Stan trading Megatron to John after Murray and McFadden get injured for the year.
• Andrew’s odds for winning the League improve even more after Lynch goes down holding his knee.