Last Place Wisdom: Season Preview

Well, Fantasy Season is almost among us. Less than a week to fiddle with rankings, listen to podcasts in the hope of finding the year’s big sleeper, and to convince yourself that Darren McFadden will stay healthy enough to be a starting running back. If that sounds too difficult (who are we kidding, there is no way McFadden stays healthy), at least make sure you get a chance to listen to the debut podcast from our very own Commissioner and his co-host, the one and only Aaron Clapperton, which I’m told I should be expecting later in the week. I think the level of excitement that I have to hear John and Aaron’s thoughts on the upcoming season can only be compared to me, listening to Thrice, while eating hamburgers and watching the Dark Knight, which is to say extremely excited (It’s probably the same feeling that Curtis gets every time he nears the Saskatchewan border, or that Andrew gets every time he walks into Intersport, or that John gets every time he thinks about the NFL).

 

No, I didn't draw this, but I'm wishing that I did

 

So, while it might be hard to wait for the insight that can only be obtained by bringing together the minds that combined to take an injured Peyton Manning in the first round, I thought I would do my best to share some thoughts on the upcoming season. Here are a few ways I see this season playing out.

• There are a dozen or so good running backs, and then a bunch of question marks. I'm terrified of taking the wrong one in the first round and losing the season. You can't win your fantasy league in the first couple of rounds, but you can certainly lose it. 
• Darren McFadden and Demarco Murray will get hurt. The temptation to draft them will be strong, but you will never be able to count on them and hate your team for it. Of course, if they stay healthy and drop far enough, they could be a steal (damn it...and that is how you talk yourself into taking someone you hate)
• Quarterback is deep this year. This is thanks to the large number of new starters coming into the league last year. 
• That being said, I see one of the Class of '12 (Wilson, RGIII, Luck, Kaepernick) being a big disappointment. That won't stop me from taking them, but it causes me to worry.
• Good receivers will appear as the year progresses. Last year it was Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, James Jones and Cecil Shorts. If I can get one WR that I really like, I’m fine with taking 4 or 5 more and hoping that one of them has a breakout year.
• Offenses like Green Bay and New Orleans will produce some great receivers, but good luck picking who that might be on any given week. Watch Colston and Cobb be disappointing as  Jermichael Finley and Kenny Stills go off to put up double digit touchdowns (sorry if I spoiled a sleeper of yours John).
• Tight Ends will frustrate all owners who don't have Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten and (maybe) Tony Gonzalez. The rest will score touchdowns in half their games and make you happy, while putting up 5 points in the others.
• Someone will win a game based on their D/ST scoring 35+ points (probably against the Jets or Oakland), even though the rest of their team does nothing of value. This will ruin the loser’s weekend like Men’s Breakfast for Mike Powell (yes, I did steal this off John).
• The Steelers will have a difficult season, given their aging roster, OL issues and tough division. They will go as far as Roethlisberger can carry them, so it's hard to completely count them out.
• I know far more about Fantasy than about the actual NFL, so I won't bother to guess at which actual teams might surprise or disappoint. 

And with that laid out on the table, I’m ready to draft. After taking part Matt Haskell’s fantasy draft last night (aka The Unimportant League), I love my team, so I’m ready to do it for real. Of course, the fantasy sports laws tell me that although I can be extremely successful in the less important leagues (1 game away from winning it all in Haskell’s league, back-to-back finals appearances in the Fantasy Hockey league Pete Peeter’s Peeps), I’m destined for disappointment in the one that matters most.

On the next Last Place Wisdom:

• Keith breaks down the draft results.
• Andrew explains why picking John Ryan will end up paying dividends late.
• Aaron comes up with another excuse for missing the draft 3 years in a row (probably something lame like his wife going into labour)